The Indiana Pacers hit the road as sizeable underdogs in Game 1 of the NBA Finals.
The pregame narrative: The Oklahoma City Thunder earned the right to be huge favourites to win the title. They finished with an all-time regular season record (68-14) and have been the best team in the playoffs. The Pacers have been resilient in this position, though, with one more major upset to pull off.
Check out my Pacers vs. Thunder SGP predictions for Game 1 on June 5, featuring Chet Holmgren and Tyrese Haliburton.
Pacers vs. Thunder predictions
Parlay: Thunder -7.5 | Holmgren over 25.5 points/rebounds | Haliburton under 18.5 points (+330)
Thunder -7.5 (-159): Let’s start by looking at some stats and where OKC ranks in the postseason:
- Second-best net rating (11.8)
- Best defensive rating (104.7)
- Lowest turnover percentage (11.6)
That makes it incredibly hard to beat the Thunder over 48 minutes.
This team has two All-NBA defensive team members and a newly minted MVP, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who led the NBA in scoring while being extremely efficient.
Indiana’s been very good on the road in the playoffs (6-2), but the team’s been down big a few times before coming back to win.
That may fly in the Eastern Conference, but there’s no room for error against the Thunder, who are used to playing with and maintaining big leads.
NBA SGP legs
Holmgren over 25.5 points/rebounds (-124): The Pacers have a hard time containing skilled bigs, as we saw with Karl-Anthony Towns of the New York Knicks.
Holmgren isn’t KAT, but this isn’t a KAT line, and there are a few reasons to like OKC’s rising big man in this matchup:
- The 23-year-old has upped his production in the playoffs, averaging 16.4 points and 8.6 rebounds.
- He had his best series in the WCF vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves, scoring 18.0 PPG on 56.7% from the field.
- Indiana allowed the second-most points/rebounds per game to power forwards during the regular season (35.40), per Fantasy Pros.
He went 3-2 on this wager against the Timberwolves, and I expect even more success in the Finals.
This game could end up in blowout territory, so I wanted to find a pick I thought could cash in limited minutes, and this fits the bill.
Haliburton under 18.5 points (-167): Haliburton’s averaging 18.8 points in the postseason, but OKC’s defence is a different beast.
- The Thunder’s defensive rating (104.7) is almost four points higher than the next closest team and is almost nine points higher than the Knicks’ (113.2).
- Plus, Haliburton is 4-4 against this line on the road and has 22 total points in his last two away games.
The guard has been relying on heavy 3-point volume (7.1 attempts per game).
He won’t have as much space against OKC’s smothering defence and plethora of defensive wings.
Pacers vs. Thunder predictions made at 10:56 a.m. ET 06/04/2025.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.