Four countries remain in the Nations League semifinal that kicks off on Wednesday.
The pregame narrative: Spain and France met in the semis of the Euros almost a year ago and now rematch in the Nations League. Before that, Germany and Portugal put their offences to the test with a spot in the final on the line.
Check out the best Nations League predictions for the semifinal matches taking place on June 4-5.
Nations League predictions
Best bet: Spain/France over 2.5 goals (+123)
Spain has played eight matches in this competition, and this wager cashed in six of them (3.38 average goals per game).
Both of France’s quarterfinal games vs. Croatia finished just below this total with two goals each. But Les Bleus still have a 4-4 record against this over at the Nations League.
The advanced stats, per Fotmob, paint a better picture of how much offensive potential there is in this matchup:
- Spain ranks first in shots on goal per match (7.3), second in big chances (30), and second with 17.7 xG.
- France ranks third in shots on goal per match (5.9), sixth in big chances (21) and sixth with 12.7 xG.
With talents like Kylian Mbappe and Kolo Muani up top, France is always dangerous in the offensive third.
On top of that, key defensive pieces will be absent for both sides, as well.
- Out for France: Eduardo Camavinga, William Saliba, Dayot Upamecano
- Out for Spain: Rodri, Dani Carvajal, Aymeric LaPorte
Plus, France could be without several players who were involved in Saturday’s Champions League final.
I expect a high-paced contest between two nations that will need to lean on their offensive firepower. For that reason, I’ll happily take a shot on this modest total at a plus-money price.
Key stat: France and Spain met in the semifinal at the 2024 Euros in a match that finished over this total at 2-1.
Go to full Nations League betting markets
Germany vs. Portugal Nations League best bet
Germany to win (-107): Germany leads this tournament or ranks near the top in many important stats:
- Most goals per match (2.9)
- Most xG (19.1)
- Most big changes (34)
- Second-fewest goals conceded per match (1.0)
- Fourth-fewest xG (8.8)
The Germans fended off Italy in the quarterfinal, winning 5-4 on aggregate.
Portugal has been dominant in its own right, but has faced inferior competition en route to the semis, including a quarterfinal clash with Denmark.
But the Navigators have benefited from an undeniably strong offence, as well as some good luck.
They are scoring goals at a high rate, with the third most at this competition (2.3 per game), but the side leaves something to be desired on defence.
Portugal has only conceded eight goals but ranks right in the middle of the pack with 10.4 xG allowed.
It hasn’t cost Portugal yet, but I think Germany can take advantage and score a few goals while relying on a strong defensive shape.
Nations League predictions made at 12:32 p.m. on 06/03/2025.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.