The Toronto Blue Jays open a three-game set against the Philadelphia Phillies at Rogers Centre on Tuesday.
The pregame narrative: Toronto is riding a five-game winning streak after demolishing the lowly Athletics over the weekend. Philadelphia, meanwhile, has lost four straight but is favoured to win tonight in Bryce Harper’s expected return to action.
Check out my Blue Jays vs. Phillies prop picks on June 3, featuring Kyle Schwarber and Bo Bichette.
Blue Jays picks vs. Phillies
Best Bet: Schwarber over 1.5 bases (+116)
This is a smash play for me. Schwarber weilds a scorching bat and has a platoon advantage against a struggling Bowden Francis.
- Schwarber is batting .333/.443/.639 over his last 10 games. In that span, he has five doubles and two home runs.
- Francis has a 5.04 ERA this season and has the worst HR/9 rate (2.44) in MLB among pitchers with over 50.0 IP.
Simply put, Toronto’s righty has been figured out after lighting up the league to close 2024. He ranks in the 20th percentile or lower in xERA, xBA, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate, according to Baseball Savant.
Left-hitting batters are slugging .617 against Francis, while righties are slugging .383.
Schwarber has only seen Francis once, but went 2-for-3 against him last September with a home run.
Key stat: Schwarber’s career SLG vs. righties (.524) is 100 points higher than his career SLG vs. lefties (.424).
Quick pick
Bichette to score (+105): Toronto’s bats have been red-hot lately, making its leadoff man an enticing pick to cross the plate.
Here’s how the Jays have performed over the last 30 days (MLB ranks in parentheses):
- 17.2% K rate (1st)
- .274 batting average (2nd)
- 127 wRC+ (2nd)
- 35 home runs (6th)
Bichette has been on a heater of his own, with hits in six consecutive games. In that span, he has two doubles, two home runs and has scored five times.
Phillies starter Cristopher Sanchez (3.32 ERA) has been good but not great this season. He has below-average walk and hard-hit rates and allowed 32 runners to reach base — ceding 10 runs — in his last four starts.
The righty does own an 80th percentile K rate (27.6%), but Toronto strikes out at the lowest clip in baseball. Bichette should have ample opportunities to get aboard and score.
Phillies vs. Blue Jays picks made at 9:04 a.m. ET on 06/03/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.