A pair of NL division leaders clash at Dodger Stadium on Monday night, as the Los Angeles Dodgers host the New York Mets.
The pregame narrative: The Dodgers just put up 29 runs over three games against the Yankees, and now they’ll see a Mets squad that is 7-1 in its past eight games. New York won two of three games against L.A. less than two weeks ago, and this week’s four-game set will conclude their season series.
Check out my Mets vs. Dodgers prop bets, featuring Pete Alonso, Max Muncy and Dustin May.
Mets vs. Dodgers prop bets
Best Bet: Alonso over 1.5 total bases (+120)
May wasn’t a great month for Alonso, but I’m not sure I’d go as far as calling it a slump.
Alonso has posted a .234/.281/.432 slash line since May 1. His expected numbers in that span, according to Baseball Savant, paint a more encouraging story:
- .279 xBA
- .317 xOBP
- .545 xSLG
Alonso still recorded a 95-plus mph exit velocity or greater (i.e., a “hard-hit” ball) on more than 50% of his balls in play since May 1. Consistently mashing the baseball is always a good place to start for a bases prop.
If you’re with me that Alonso’s recent dip in production is not as concerning as it initially seems, it’s easy to buy in on a guy who’s having a stellar season overall.
The first baseman ranks in the 96th percentile or above in hard-hit rate, barrel rate, xSLG and average exit velocity.
Now he faces May, who has struggled to limit hard contact over his past several outings.
In seven games since April 22, May has coughed up a 47% hard-hit rate and posted a 5.59 ERA in 38.2 innings. He’s allowed at least one home run in five straight starts.
Key Stat: Alonso is averaging 2.0 bases/game this season and is 6-2 vs. this prop in his past eight games.
Best MLB picks
May over 5.5 Ks (+105): This isn’t a great matchup for May to rack up strikeouts, but the plus-money price is compelling nonetheless.
I mentioned that May has been giving up a lot of hard contact, but he’s also putting out his own fires with solid strikeout volume.
- 4-1 vs. this line last month
- 5.8 Ks/start this season
- 8+ Ks in three straight outings
May has dealt with a myriad of injuries throughout his career, and he no longer has an upper-90s fastball from when he broke into the majors.
But three of his four pitches have a whiff rate above 30.0% (MLB average is 25.0%), though, so he still has multiple ways to keep hitters guessing.
Muncy over 0.5 RBI (+140): Riding a hot streak, and staring down a lefty-righty platoon advantage, I love Muncy’s value to drive in a run tonight.
- Munch has consistently batted in the Nos. 4-6 spots in the Dodgers’ order since the start of May. So he’s always in a prime RBI spot.
- Over his past 16 games, Muncy has a .320/.422/.700 slash line with 23 RBI. He’s 10-3 vs. this prop over 13 starts in that span.
- The left-hitting Muncy has an .886 OPS (141 wRC+) vs. right-handed pitchers dating back to the 2023 season.
Keep in mind that Mets starter Paul Blackburn is making his season debut tonight. He had a 4.66 ERA in 14 starts last year while posting a .266 xBA (14th percentile).
Mets vs. Dodgers prop bets made at 2:10 p.m. ET on 06/02/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.