In the final matchup of the night, the Arizona Diamondbacks host the Washington Nationals at Chase Field.
The pregame narrative: Both teams enter with a 27-30 record, which is certainly a surprise on the D-backs’ side of things. The 2023 NL pennant winners are 1-8 in their past nine games and in desperate need of a turnaround.
Check out my Nationals vs. Diamondbacks prop picks for May 31, featuring James Wood and Josh Naylor.
Nationals vs. Diamondbacks prop picks
Best Bet: Naylor over 1.5 total bases (+104)
I’m not sold on Naylor keeping up his hot streak forever, but I do like his chances of putting together another solid stat line tonight.
The Mississauga, Ontario native will have a platoon advantage against right-hander (and fellow Canadian) Michael Soroka. Naylor is working on a fifth straight season with an OPS of .800 or better vs. RHPs.
Soroka, born and raised in Calgary, has had a precipitous fall from his NL Rookie of the Year runner-up season in 2019.
Since 2023 — after multiple Achilles tendon injuries and two lost seasons — Soroka has a 5.30 ERA over 137.2 innings.
One thing Soroka is doing right this year is living in the strike zone. He has a 4.6% walk rate, which ranks in the 92nd percentile, per Baseball Savant. But to me, that just means Naylor will have plenty of pitches to hit.
Let’s get back to Naylor’s side of this pick. I mentioned he’s been a menace vs. RHPs, but he’s also just on a roll overall right now.
He’s 11-5 vs. this prop in his past 16 games, averaging 1.9 bases per game in that span.
Naylor has gone over 1.5 bases in six straight games, with multiple hits in each of his past three.
As a guy who also rarely strikes out (12.2%, 92nd percentile in MLB), there’s just a lot to like here.
Key stat: Naylor is 4-for-6 vs. Soroka with a home run and a double.
Prop prediction
Wood over 0.5 runs (+104): The Nationals seem unlikely to threaten for a playoff berth this year, but the future is still bright thanks to guys like Wood.
The 22-year-old outfielder, who’s a DMV native, is having a superb sophomore season for the Nats:
- 5th in SLG (.579)
- 8th in OPS (.964)
- 9th in wRC+ (165)
He runs exceptionally well for someone with a 6-foot-7 frame, posting a 70th-percentile sprint speed (28.0 mph).
And he’s doing some of his best work right now.
Since May 12, Wood has cashed this bet in 12 of 16 games. He has a .322/.414/.712 slash line in that span.
Arizona starter Brandon Pfaadt has allowed at least three runs in five of his past six outings. Wood has as much of a chance as anyone to cross the plate tonight.
Nationals vs. Diamondbacks predictions made at 1:26 p.m. ET on 05/31/2025.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.