A fade on Lucas Giolito highlights the best prop picks for Friday’s MLB slate.
Today’s MLB props narrative: The Boston Red Sox right-hander runs into a strong Atlanta Braves team that’s especially dangerous now that Ronald Acuna Jr. has returned to the lineup. And Giolito was already pounded once by the Braves this season.
Check out my top MLB prop bets for May 30, featuring predictions on Casey Mize and Pete Alonso.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Giolito under 17.5 outs (-127)
I’m surprised to see a 17.5 line on Giolito, whose rested Red Sox face the dangerous Braves on the road.
The rest component is big when dealing with pitcher out props.
Boston was off yesterday, giving its bullpen a full day of recovery. That’s huge in a long season with few days off, especially following back-to-back extra-inning games.
Walker Buehler and Garrett Crochet are projected to start the remaining games of the series, so we’re not looking at a bullpen day on the horizon.
You can find things to like about Giolito’s debut season with the Red Sox, but the overall body of work leaves a lot to be desired.
- 5.27 ERA in 5 starts
- Below-average K%
- .295 batting average against
The Braves grinded down all-stars Cristopher Sanchez and Zack Wheeler in a doubleheader yesterday, forcing both out before completing six frames.
Atlanta pumped Wheeler for a season-high six runs and is third in MLB in wRC+ over the last two weeks.
On the year, the Braves rank seventh in batting average and on-base percentage vs. righties.
Acuna, back atop the lineup, has a 1.082 OPS through his first six games.
Key stat: Giolito faced Atlanta two starts ago, allowing six runs on eight hits in four innings.
Best MLB picks
Mize over 3.5 Ks (-137): Mize has a league-average K rate, though his whiff rate is in the 73rd percentile thanks to an excellent splitter he throws often.
- Mize has recorded at least three strikeouts in every start.
- He’s 6-2 against this line on the season.
- The right-hander fell short of this line when he faced the Royals in April, but tonight he’ll get them at Kauffman Stadium, which has been one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in baseball this season.
That, and Kansas City’s non-potent offence (last in MLB in homers, fifth-worst wRC+), will hopefully help keep Mize on the mound.
Mize (2.45 ERA, 1.01 WHIP) has done a good job of that this season, working into the sixth inning in seven of his eight starts.
The reasoning behind this light line is simple: Kansas City is second in MLB in contact rate and has the lowest K% in baseball vs. righties.
But that’s not a big enough deterrent for me against a pitcher who has been sharp and generally works deep.
Alonso over 1.5 total bases (+110): With Kyle Freeland on the mound for the Colorado Rockies, there are quite a few props I like for tonight’s game against the New York Mets.
But I’ve landed on this. Here’s why:
- Alonso is third in the majors with 17 doubles.
- Only 10 players have more total bases.
- He leads the Mets with 11 homers and is batting a career-high .290.
- The power-hitting first baseman has a .937 OPS at home, and the wind is expected to be blowing out to left-center at Citi Field tonight.
Alonso has been quiet in May, but Freeland represents a great spot.
The southpaw struggles to keep runners off the bases and from crossing the plate, entering with a 5.86 ERA and 1.68 WHIP.
Right-handed hitters are batting .360 off him and slugging .505.
MLB prop picks made at 1 p.m. ET on 05/30/2025.
Chris joined NorthStar Gaming from Covers.com where he was a publishing editor and wrote betting content. Before that, he was the sports editor at VICE Canada, worked for theScore and covered the Blue Jays for MLB.com. In addition to filling out the lineup card each day for the editorial team, Chris writes frequently himself, primarily on the NBA and MLB.