The Minnesota Timberwolves are on the brink of elimination and find themselves in a must-win situation on the road against the Oklahoma City Thunder on Wednesday night.
The pregame narrative: The Timberwolves suffered a heartbreaking 128-126 loss at home in Game 4. It was a failed effort to even the series, and now the Thunder are one game from reaching their first NBA Finals since the Kevin Durant era.
Check out my Timberwolves vs. Thunder prop picks on Chet Holmgren and Jaden McDaniels for Game 5 on May 28.
Timberwolves vs. Thunder prop picks
Best bet: Holmgren over 23.5 points/rebounds (-107)
The final piece of this Thunder roster was drafted second overall in 2022 before missing his entire rookie campaign.
Holmgren returned as a sophomore and rivalled Victor Wembanyama for Rookie of the Year before getting injured again at the start of this season.
Luckily, the 7-footer returned midway through the year and had enough time to prepare for this lengthy playoff run that isn’t over yet.
- Holmgren is averaging 16.1 points and 8.7 rebounds in the playoffs.
- That’s an improvement over his regular-season averages (15.0 points, 8.0 rebounds).
- He’s 8-7 against this wager overall, but is 5-1 when playing 30-plus minutes.
When OKC wins, it often wins big. So Holmgren can fall victim to a bad game script.
But as the games get more important, Holmgren should see more run.
In Game 4, the 23-year-old scored 21 points (9-of-14 shooting) and grabbed seven rebounds in 33 minutes of action.
He’s averaging 17.0 points on 55.3% from the field in the Western Conference final.
Key stat: Holmgren has at least 22 points/rebounds in seven of eight home games this postseason, giving him a solid floor for this pick.
Game 5 prop predictions
McDaniels over 12.5 points (-125): McDaniels has been a consistent scorer for the Timberwolves in the postseason, and he’s coming off an excellent Game 4.
- The 24-year-old is scoring 14.6 points and shooting 51.7% from the field, numbers that are well above his regular-season averages.
- He has shot over 50% in 10 of 13 games.
McDaniels may be an underwhelming 7-6 against this line, but he’s done his best with the amount of shots he’s taking.
He has averaged 11.0 field-goal attempts per game in the playoffs, though he should see an uptick in volume in a must-win game for Minnesota.
McDaniels’ Game 4 performance certainly helped make the case.
With Anthony Edwards smothered on the defensive end, McDaniels hit 9-of-15 shots for 22 points.
Timberwolves vs. Thunder prop picks made at 10:25 a.m. ET 05/28/2025.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.