A pair of capable lefties are on the mound Tuesday night as the Los Angeles Angels host the New York Yankees.
The pregame narrative: Tyler Anderson, who allowed two runs in 11.0 innings against the Yankees last year, gets the ball for the home team. He’s up against Carlos Rodon, who is 5-0 with a 1.48 ERA in his past seven starts.
Check out my Yankees vs. Angels predictions, including props on Rodon and Aaron Judge in a +330 SGP.
Yankees vs. Angels predictions
SGP picks: Rodon over 6.5 Ks | Judge over 1.5 total bases | Under 10.5 runs (+335)
Rodon over 6.5 Ks (-165): Rodon has a nice chance to cash this bet in any given outing. But tonight’s matchup makes me particularly bullish.
The Angels have the second-highest K rate vs. left-handed pitchers (27.3%), as well as the third-highest K rate of the past two weeks (26.4%).
Rodon’s third season with the Yankees is shaping up to be his best. He has a 2.88 ERA and an 11.0 K/9 through 11 starts.
He’s 8-3 vs. this prop and has a strong 26.6 K% vs. the Angels’ current lineup (64 plate appearances), per Baseball Savant.
MLB SGP legs
Judge over 1.5 total bases (-143): With the kind of season Judge is having, this is absolutely a playable price to just bet this straight up. But that also means it fits nicely into the SGP, of course.
Judge is the runaway AL MVP favourite, which isn’t something that’s supposed to exist in May. But here we are.
Through 53 games, Judge has a 1.248 OPS and is averaging 2.9 total bases. He’s 36-17 vs. this prop.
If any doubt should creep in regarding this pick, it comes from the fact that Judge is 0-for-6 with three Ks against Anderson.
But Judge has been the best hitter in baseball vs. LHPs this year (1.182 SLG, 368 wRC+), so you can be sure that a six-at-bat sample won’t sway me.
Under 10.5 runs (-200): Although I’m hoping Judge continues to tee off, I don’t expect the game to be overrun by offence.
Last night’s matchup finished 5-1 in the Yankees’ favour. That marked New York’s 10th time in 12 games going under 10.5 runs.
Both starting pitchers have an ERA of 3.60 or below, which is also a positive indicator for this pick.
- This under has cashed in 9 of Rodon’s 11 starts.
- Anderson has a 2.51 ERA and a .190 opponent BA at home this year. This under is 4-1 in his home starts.
Yankees vs. Angels predictions made at 1:00 p.m. ET on 05/27/2025.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.