It’s Memorial Day stateside, which means MLB action throughout the afternoon and evening.
Today’s MLB props narrative: Ivan Herrera has been a great story for the resurgent St. Louis Cardinals, and he draws a really enticing matchup this afternoon. Later on, Manny Machado looks to make the most of a platoon advantage, as he has for most of the season.
Check out the best MLB prop bets for May 26, featuring a prediction on Eugenio Suarez.
MLB prop bets
Best Bet: Herrera over 1.5 total bases (+125)
The St. Louis Cardinals (30-23) are off to a surprisingly good start, and it’s been unexpected contributors like Herrera making it happen.
The backup catcher has hit his way into an everyday spot in the lineup (typically as a designated hitter), posting a .391/.463/.696 slash line.
He missed over a month with a knee injury, so the sample size is only 21 games. But the results are simply too good to ignore.
Since returning from the injured list, Herrera has cashed this bet in eight of 14 games.
No one expects Herrera to keep a Ted Williams pace for long. But his batted-ball metrics at Baseball Savant are glowing.
He’s well above average in nearly every category, most notably sitting in an elite tier for expected batting average (.320) and expected slugging percentage (.610).
Oh, and this bet is also inspired by the opposing pitcher, Charlie Morton (0-7, 7.68 ERA), who has been one of the very worst pitchers in baseball this year. Right-handed batters have posted a .903 OPS against him.
Herrera has no prior history against Morton, but I expect him to tee off in this matchup.
Key stat: Herrera is averaging 2.4 total bases in his 20 starts this season.
Best MLB picks
Suarez under 0.5 runs (-127): Suarez has been inexplicably poor against southpaws this season, and he’ll face a good one tonight.
The Pittsburgh Pirates are rolling with Andrew Heaney, who has a 2.87 ERA in his past seven outings. He has allowed two or fewer runs in five of those starts.
Suarez, who hits from the right side, has just a .111/.226/.244 slash line vs. LHPs in 53 plate appearances.
Against Heaney, Suarez is 0-for-9 with six Ks.
From the heart of the Arizona Diamondbacks’ lineup, Suarez is more typically tasked with driving in runs than scoring them himself. He has gone under 0.5 runs in 29 of 51 starts (56.9%).
Machado over 1.5 total bases (+115): I’m pleasantly surprised to see this plus-money price for Machado with a left-hander on the mound.
Machado is slugging .660 vs. LHPs this season. His 208 wRC+ against lefties ranks eighth among 154 qualified hitters.
The third baseman also has four multi-hit games in his past five and is averaging 2.1 total bases this month. What’s not to like?
Machado ranks in the 100th percentile in xBA (.331) and the 90th percentile in xSLG (.551).
MLB prop picks made at 10:35 a.m. ET on 05/26/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.