The Toronto Blue Jays need a win on Sunday afternoon to avoid a road sweep at the hands of the Tampa Bay Rays.
The pregame narrative: Tampa is 4-1 vs. Toronto so far this season, including consecutive 3-1 victories on Friday and Saturday. Today, Chris Bassitt and Ryan Pepiot will face each other for the second time in fewer than two weeks in a game that’s sitting in pick’em territory.
Prop bets on Bassitt and Brandon Lowe are part of my +310 SGP Blue Jays vs. Rays predictions for May 25.
Blue Jays vs. Rays predictions
SGP: Under 10.5 runs | Bassitt over 4.5 Ks | Lowe over 0.5 hits (+310)
Under 10.5 runs (-167): The Rays and Jays have only scored eight combined runs through the first two games of this series, and I could see another low-scoring battle again today.
When Bassitt and Pepiot last met on May 14, both starters put forth solid efforts in an eventual 3-1 win for Toronto.
Bassitt is no stranger to pitchers’ duels, as nine of his 10 starts have come in under this run total. The average total in his outings this year is 6.0 runs.
As for Pepiot, eight of his 10 starts have finished under 10.5 runs. And the Rays are one of the most unders-friendly teams in MLB (30-19-2, 61.2%), according to Team Rankings.
MLB SGP legs
Bassitt over 4.5 Ks (-165): Bassitt has never been a notably high strikeout guy, but he consistently works into the sixth inning. And that will always give him a shot at cashing a bet like this.
- Dating back to last season, Bassitt has pitched into the sixth or later in 14 of 17 starts.
- His 9.6 K/9 rate this season is a career-high (in 11 seasons).
- He’s 8-2 vs. this prop and is averaging 6.1 Ks per start.
The Rays are a promising matchup for Bassitt, too. They have the 11th-highest K rate in the majors (22.7%).
Also, Bassitt has cashed this prop in all four outings against Tampa since the start of last season.
Lowe over 0.5 hits (-195): Lowe has had Bassitt’s number in the past, and I love his chances of collecting a hit today.
- Lowe has 1+ hits in 10 of his past 11 games. He’s batting .350 with a 222 wRC+ in that span.
- Against Bassitt, Lowe is 7-for-14 with three home runs and two doubles.
The left-hitting Lowe has a platoon advantage against Bassitt, who has allowed a .293 BA to LHHs this season.
Lowe went 2-for-3 off Bassitt with a double on May 14.
Blue Jays vs. Rays predictions made at 9:40 a.m. ET on 05/25/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.