The Toronto Blue Jays lost a low-scoring battle against the Tampa Bay Rays on Friday night, but Saturday’s rematch could be a different story.
The pregame narrative: The last time Shane Baz and Jose Berrios met on the mound was less than two weeks ago, and the result was an 11-9 win for the Rays. Tonight’s game has an over/under of 9 runs.
Check out my Blue Jays vs. Rays prop picks on May 24, featuring Daulton Varsho and Josh Lowe.
Blue Jays picks vs. Rays
Best Bet: Varsho over 1.5 bases (+115)
Varsho has a lot of all-or-nothing in his offensive profile right now. That’s fine with me, though, because I know he can cash this bet with one swing.
Varsho is striking out at a staggering 33.3% clip, and his .225 xBA is among the lowest in the majors.
But he’s also in elite company in terms of barrel rate (19.1%) and xSLG (.540), per Baseball Savant. MLB averages this season are an 8.7% barrel rate and a .424 xSLG.
Of his 14 hits, 11 have gone for extra bases.
That includes a frozen-rope home run on May 13 that Varsho hit off Tampa right-hander Shane Baz, who will be on the mound again tonight.
Varsho tagged an inside fastball from Baz for a 113.9 mph exit velocity — the hardest-hit ball of his career.
Baz is having a rough go of it in May, allowing 21 runs on 30 hits in just 19.2 innings (9.61 ERA). His opponents have posted a .675 SLG in that span, which is higher than Shohei Ohtani’s season-long mark.
Key stat: Varsho has gone over 1.5 bases in five of his past seven games, as well as in nine of 17 starts on the season.
Quick pick
Lowe over 0.5 runs (-107): After battling an oblique strain for a month and a half, Lowe is back and producing for the Rays.
Through nine games, he has a .281/.324/.563 slash line. And his .287 xBA suggests that there hasn’t been any excessive batted-ball luck so far.
I looked at Lowe’s bases prop, but I think there’s just as much value on him to score a run. The left-hitting outfielder has a platoon advantage tonight and should be up in the No. 1 or 2 spot in the Rays’ order.
When a lefty is on the mound, Lowe typically bats in the No. 6 or 7 spot.
Lowe is 4-for-13 (.308) with a double against Berrios. As a team, Tampa Bay owns a .500 SLG vs. Berrios in 104 at-bats.
Blue Jays vs. Rays picks made at 9:20 a.m. ET on 05/24/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.