The Toronto Blue Jays start a weekend series on the road against the division rival Tampa Bay Rays on Friday.
The pregame narrative: Toronto put together a gutsy effort to win on Thursday against the San Diego Padres. The extra-innings victory sealed a three-game sweep and put the club over the .500 mark for the first time in over a month.
Check out my Blue Jays vs. Rays prop picks on May 23, featuring Addison Barger and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Blue Jays picks vs. Rays
Best Bet: Barger over 1.5 total bases (+155)
The Blue Jays may have found a gem in Barger.
In his second MLB season, the third baseman is batting .267 with two home runs and 10 RBI. While that isn’t too impressive, his advanced metrics are the real eyecatcher:
- .291 xBA
- 95.2 average exit velocity
- 58.2 hard-hit %
According to Baseball Savant, he ranks in the 85th percentile or better for all of those stats.
Drew Rasmussen (2.94 ERA) takes the mound for the Rays. He’s a good pitcher, but his last five starts have signalled reason to worry moving forward.
He has a 4.62 ERA and 5.56 FIP across those outings. The righty gives up an average exit velocity of 90.4 (27th percentile) while having below-average whiff and K rates.
Rasmussen should allow a lot of contact to this red-hot Jays lineup, and Barger should continue to provide power hitting in the middle of the order.
Key stat: Barger has a .356 BA and is slugging .622 in 12 games since May 9.
Quick pick
Guerrero over 0.5 runs (+102): This pick feels like a steal at plus money.
To start, Guerrero has pretty good numbers in his career vs. Rasmussen. He is 6-for-21 (.286) with two doubles and a home run.
Additionally, the slugging first baseman is elite at getting into scoring position. Over his last 25 games, take a look at his stats:
- 21 runs
- .387 OBP
- 43 total bases
- 1+ run in 19 of 25 games
The problem is usually the other Blue Jays’ ability to drive Vladdy in, but that hasn’t been an issue lately.
Over that same 25-game sample, Toronto is averaging 4.64 runs per game.
That would rank 10th in MLB over the entire season.
Blue Jays vs. Rays picks made at 11:13 a.m. ET on 05/23/2025.
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Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.