The Arizona Diamondbacks and Los Angeles Dodgers close out Wednesday’s MLB slate with a West Coast rubber match.
The pregame narrative: Los Angeles snapped a four-game losing streak last night in extra innings and is slightly favoured to take the series-deciding game. Corbin Burnes (2.56 ERA) gets the ball for Arizona, and he has a stellar history against the Dodgers.
Props on Shohei Ohtani and Gabriel Moreno are featured in my Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers +410 SGP predictions for May 21.
Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers predictions
SGP picks: Diamondbacks +1.5 | Moreno 2+ bases | Ohtani 1+ hit (+410)
Diamondbacks +1.5 (-190): This is a solid place to begin.
Arizona has a definitive pitching advantage in this matchup thanks to Burnes, who has been humming after a rough start to the season.
The righty has a 1.19 ERA across his last five starts, holding batters to a .187 average with a 9.9 K/9. That includes an outing against the Dodgers on May 10, where he threw seven shutout innings in a 3-0 victory.
Burnes has held Los Angeles’ star-studded lineup to a .207 average over 153 combined plate appearances, according to Baseball Savant.
Los Angeles counters with Dustin May, and the 27-year-old has been trending in the opposite direction.
May has a 6.57 ERA in his last five starts. L.A. hasn’t covered a -1.5 spread in any of those games.
MLB SGP legs
Moreno 2+ bases (+165): This leg nearly quadruples the value of the SGP from +110 to +410.
- Moreno has been wielding a red-hot bat lately, slashing .320/.358/.580 in May.
- He has cleared this line in five of his last six games with two home runs and three doubles.
Arizona’s catcher is just 2-for-8 against May with a pair of singles, but the advanced metrics would suggest he’s been quite unlucky.
The catcher has a .396 xBA and .441 xSLG in those at-bats.
Ohtani 1+ hit (-265): Ohtani has been on a rampage this month, batting .347 with 10 home runs.
The three-time MVP has cashed this bet in 16 of his last 17 games, including all six matchups against the D-backs.
Ohtani hasn’t seen a ton of Burnes but has been productive in a small sample, going 4-for-8 with a home run.
There isn’t much more to say here — bet on the NL’s best hitter to record a knock.
Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers predictions made at 10:06 a.m. ET on 05/21/2025.
Looking to get started? Sign up here.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.