The Toronto Blue Jays look for a series win over the San Diego Padres at Rogers Centre on Wednesday.
The pregame narrative: Toronto is a slight home favourite behind struggling ace Kevin Gausman after blanking San Diego in the series opener. Gausman (4.59 ERA) pitches opposite Randy Vasquez, who has recently over-indexed against a trio of bottom-feeding teams.
Check out my Blue Jays vs. Padres prop picks on May 21, featuring Jackson Merrill and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Blue Jays picks vs. Padres
Best bet: Guerrero to score (+110)
We’re at the point where I’ll look at Guerrero props on a nightly basis.
It took the $500-million man a while to heat up, but he’s found a rhythm in May, posting a .328/.447/.508 slash line and scoring a run in 13 of 17 games.
Vladdy went 1-for-3 last night, hitting a towering home run in the first inning to open the scoring.
I’m confident he can get after Vasquez on Wednesday.
The righty has a 2.12 ERA across three starts this month but pitched against the Los Angeles Angels, Colorado Rockies and Pittsburgh Pirates.
Those squads rank bottom three in batting average and bottom seven in wRC+.
And even in those games, Vasquez got touched up. He allowed 23 base runners but somehow managed to keep the opposition to four combined runs.
The Venezuelan’s season-long advanced metrics paint a more accurate picture.
- 2nd percentile K rate (13.3)
- 7th percentile walk rate (11.7)
- 11th percentile xERA (5.61)
- 19th percentile xBA (.274)
I was debating taking the over on Guerrero’s 1.5 base total, but think this is a safer play. Vasquez doesn’t miss bats and issues a ton of free passes.
There should be plenty of opportunities for Guerrero — Toronto’s No. 2 hitter — to get aboard.
Key stat: Guerrero has scored a run in seven of his last eight games.
Quick pick
Merrill 1+ RBI (+110): Merrill bats cleanup for the Padres behind Fernando Tatis Jr, Luis Arraez and Manny Machado. There are few better spots for run production in all of baseball.
And last year’s NL Rookie of the Year runner-up has been scorching since coming off the IL in early May:
- .348/.375/.500
- 4 XBH
- 7 RBI
The left-handed hitting Merrill (.319 career BA vs. RHP) has a platoon advantage against Gausman, who allowed three homers, six runs and a season-high 10 hits in his last outing.
Arraez, Tatis and Machado are a combined 21-for-46 (.456) against the righty.
Padres vs. Blue Jays picks made at 10:43 a.m. ET on 05/21/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.