After Monday’s off-day, the Toronto Blue Jays are back in action Tuesday night with a home matchup against the San Diego Padres.
The pregame narrative: Despite going 2-4 on their recent homestand, the Padres (27-18) still have the fifth-best record in MLB. Dylan Cease gets the ball for the visiting Padres, looking to build off back-to-back quality starts.
Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. the Padres on May 20, featuring Cease and George Springer.
Blue Jays picks vs. Padres
Best Bet: Cease over 5.5 Ks (-125)
Cease has command issues at times, but no one can question the nastiness of his pitch arsenal.
The seventh-year vet plays off an upper-90s fastball with a slider that has a 43.1% whiff rate (14th-highest among all MLB pitches, per Baseball Savant, min. 50 plate appearances).
Aside from the COVID-shortened 2020 season, Cease has posted a double-digit K/9 rate every year of his career.
A simple way to contextualize that is to say Cease averages more than one strikeout per inning. And on most nights, over 5.5 Ks is going to be an attainable number.
That has proven true this year, as Cease is averaging 6.4 Ks per outing. He is 7-2 vs. this prop.
The Blue Jays aren’t a plus matchup for strikeout props, but they aren’t impervious to the efforts of an ace-calibre arm. Over the past 14 days, Toronto has the 18th-highest K rate (21.4%).
Cease has crested the 200-strikeout mark in each of the past four seasons, and he’s on track to do it again. Coming off a season-high 10 Ks, I expect another solid outing from him.
Key stat: The Jays’ active lineup has struck out 21 times against Cease in 64 plate appearances (32.8 K%).
Quick pick
Springer under 0.5 hits (+110): Springer has arguably been the Jays’ best bat so far in 2025, but his numbers have really dropped off following a scorching start.
- First 21 games: .349/.425/.556
- Past 22 games: .189/.333/.378
Most recently, Springer has gone hitless in seven of his past 13 starts. And I really don’t like this matchup for him against Cease.
As mentioned, Cease has a nasty slider. He throws it 55.5% of the time to right-hitting opponents, garnering a .185 BA against the pitch.
Springer is 4-for-27 (.148) with a 48.0% whiff rate against sliders this season. And he’s just 1-for-6 with three Ks against Cease.
Padres vs. Blue Jays picks made at 3:50 p.m. ET on 05/20/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.