The Toronto Blue Jays look to even their three-game series against the Detroit Tigers on Saturday afternoon at Rogers Centre.
The pregame narrative: With a nail-biting win last night, the Tigers (30-15) are now in sole possession of the best record in baseball. Eric Lauer, who tossed 4.2 innings of one-hit ball last time out, will start the bullpen game for Toronto.
Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. the Tigers on May 17, featuring Bo Bichette and Addison Barger.
Blue Jays picks vs. Tigers
Best Bet: Barger over 0.5 hits (-132)
I’d be a bit wary about backing Barger in a lefty-on-lefty matchup, but that’s not what we’ll have this afternoon.
With Detroit right-hander Reese Olson on the mound, Barger looks like a no-brainer pick to me at this price.
This isn’t about Olson (4-3, 3.38 ERA), who sits right around league average in expected batting average allowed (.248, 49th percentile per Baseball Savant).
It’s about the fact that Barger is crushing the baseball with confidence right now.
Though he hasn’t had enough plate appearances to be a qualified hitter yet, Barger would rank in the league’s upper tier in a bunch of key categories:
- .300 xBA
- .509 xSLG
- 94.3 mph average exit velocity
- 51.9% hard-hit rate
For context, the league averages in those categories are .252 xBA, .423 xSLG, 89.5 mph exit velocity and 41.0% hard-hit rate.
Coming off back-to-back two-hit games, Barger is now 11-for-31 (.355) with a 1.089 OPS since May 8. He’s 6-2 against this prop in that span.
With the platoon advantage today, I fully expect the utility man to record a hit.
Key stat: Barger is batting 16-for-60 (.267) with an .800 OPS against right-handers this season.
Quick pick
Bichette over 1.5 bases (+105): Bichette cashed this bet in the first inning yesterday, lining a 103.2-mph double off a Jack Flaherty slider.
Later on, Bichette skied a 109.4-mph home run into the left field corner on a changeup from Tommy Kahnle.
It’s been that kind of run for Bichette, who has homered in three of his past six games. And 10 of his past 13 balls in play have carried an exit velocity of 99 mph or above.
Bichette is 10-6 against this prop in his past 16 games, and I like Saturday’s matchup against Olson. Detroit’s starter works a three-pitch mix of sinkers, sliders and changeups to right-hitting players.
Against sinkers, sliders and changeups this season, Bichette has a .310/.330/.471 slash line in 87 at-bats.
Tigers vs. Blue Jays picks made at 9:30 a.m. ET on 05/17/2025.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.