It’s an all-L.A. showdown on Friday as the Dodgers host the Angels for the first time this season.
The pregame narrative: Shohei Ohtani isn’t back on an MLB mound yet, but he’s doing plenty of MVP-calibre stuff at the plate. Led by Ohtani, the NL-best Dodgers have scored 51 runs in their past six games.
Check out my Angels vs. Dodgers prop picks for May 16, featuring Ohtani and Luis Rengifo.
Angels vs. Dodgers prop picks
Best Bet: Ohtani over 2.5 bases (-103)
Which players could possibly entice me to bet the over on 2.5 bases? Ohtani, Aaron Judge … end of list.
Not even getting plus money on this prop stings, but Ohtani has been that good in recent games.
Here’s what he’s accomplished since April 26:
- .375 BA
- .477 OBP
- .931 SLG
- 67 bases (3.7/game)
Surely this is a fluky hot streak, right? Actually, no.
In that 18-game span, Ohtani’s expected slash line — based on Baseball Savant’s batted-ball data — is .397/.479/.977.
Somehow, that’s better across the board.
Stepping in the line of fire tonight is Angels starter Jack Kochanowicz (2-5, 5.23 ERA), who has never had the misfortune of facing Ohtani. But I have an idea of how it might go.
Kochanowicz has allowed a .527 SLG against left-hitting players this year. He throws four-seamers, sinkers and sliders to lefties roughly 90% of the time.
Ohtani is slugging .643 or better against each of those pitch types this season.
Taking the over on a 2.5-base prop is difficult to stomach, but there are a ton of compelling reasons why I like it tonight.
Key stat: Ohtani has gone over 2.5 bases in 12 of his past 18 games.
Prop predictions
Rengifo under 0.5 hits (+108): The switch-hitting Rengifo hasn’t been productive from either side of the plate, batting .209 with a measly .533 OPS.
Now he faces right-hander Dustin May, who has held lefties to a .196 BA this year (18-for-92 with 22 Ks).
Rengifo doesn’t strike out or walk much, but his contact quality has been consistently poor.
- He ranks in the 20th percentile or worse in barrel rate, xSLG, hard-hit rate and average exit velocity.
- Rengifo is hitless in 7 of his past 10 games, posting a .118/.211/.147 slash line in that span.
May has dominated lefty hitters this year, and he’s held Rengifo hitless in two previous plate appearances.
Angels vs. Dodgers prop picks made at 2:10 p.m. ET on 05/16/2025.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.