After one magical year with the New York Yankees, Juan Soto returns to the Bronx on Friday night for the first time as a member of the crosstown Mets.
The pregame narrative: Soto was the second runner-up in AL MVP voting last year, and he posted a 1.101 OPS in 14 playoff games to help the Yankees reach the World Series. He’s on an all-star-calibre pace with his new club, but the Yankees — No. 2 in MLB in runs per game — are doing fine without him.
Check out these Juan Soto props for the May 16 matchup against the Yankees.
Juan Soto props vs. Yankees
| Soto markets | Betting odds |
| Over 0.5 hits | -180 |
| Under 0.5 hits | +138 |
| Over 1.5 bases | +130 |
| Under 1.5 bases | -182 |
| Over 0.5 runs | -115 |
| Under 0.5 runs | -118 |
| To record an RBI | +170 |
| To hit a double | +440 |
| To hit a home run | +335 |
Juan Soto prop odds as of 11:15 a.m. ET on 05/16/2025.
Best Soto prop bet
Best Bet: Over 0.5 runs (-115)
At +130, Soto over 1.5 bases is a tempting proposition. But his 98th-percentile walk rate (17.2%), per Baseball Savant, gives me pause.
I expect Soto to find his way on base one way or another, which is why his runs prop is where I’ve chosen to land for my best bet.
- Soto, last year’s AL runs leader (128), has 1+ runs in 24 of 43 games. That’s a 55.8% success rate, which exceeds the 53.5% implied probability of this prop.
- In May, Soto is 8-4 against this prop while posting a 1.077 OPS.
Soto hasn’t powered up as much as usual this year. His .465 SLG is tracking to be the second-lowest of his eight-year career. That still ranks 50th among 166 qualified hitters, though.
And Soto’s batted-ball quality suggests greater things are coming.
According to Baseball Savant, his xSLG is .616. That 151-point discrepancy is tied for the sixth-largest in the majors.
So when he’s not drawing walks, Soto is plenty capable of swinging his way into scoring position.
On Friday, he’ll face Carlos Rodon in a lefty-on-lefty matchup. That wouldn’t be ideal for most hitters … but Soto isn’t most hitters.
In 271 plate appearances vs. LHPs since the start of last season, Soto has a .290/.428/.542 slash line (176 wRC+). He is, simply, matchup-proof.
Key stat: Soto has reached base at least twice in nine of 12 games this month.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.