Kevin Gausman and the Toronto Blue Jays host the Tampa Bay Rays on Thursday for an afternoon rubber match.
The pregame narrative: After a ninth-inning meltdown on Tuesday night, Toronto responded last night with a low-scoring win. Gausman is 2-0 with a 2.00 ERA in three outings so far at Rogers Centre this year.
Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. the Rays on May 15, featuring Gausman, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Daulton Varsho.
Blue Jays picks vs. Rays
Best Bet: Gausman over 5.5 Ks (-114)
Two seasons ago, Gausman led the American League with 237 strikeouts. That marked his fifth consecutive season with a 10.0 K/9 or better.
Are we ever going to see that guy again? I’m not sure. But he still has the stuff to go over 5.5 Ks when the matchup is right.
That’s what I’m seeing here, as Gausman faces a strikeout-happy Rays squad.
- There are 19 MLB players with a K rate of 30.0% or higher (minimum 100 plate appearances). Three of them — Christopher Morel, Jose Caballero, Kameron Misner — are on the Rays.
- Tampa Bay has the 8th-highest K% vs. right-handed pitchers this season (23.3).
Gausman only has 40 Ks through 45.1 innings, which equates to a 7.9 K/9. That’d be his lowest since 2018.
But he cashed this bet in both starts against the Rays last year, during a season in which he had an 8.0 K/9. Opponents matter a lot when it comes to strikeout props.
Gausman is 4-2 against this prop in his past six starts, averaging exactly 6.0 Ks in those outings.
I think the price of this prop is fair, especially given the matchup.
Key stat: In the past two weeks, Tampa Bay has the fifth-highest K rate in MLB (24.3%).
Quick pick
Guerrero over 0.5 runs (-115): Jays fans are still waiting for a sustained power surge from Guerrero. But in the meantime, he’s finding ways on base and scoring at an impressive rate.
- Guerrero has 1+ runs in 7 of his past 8 games.
- Dating back to April 23, Guerrero has a .309/.400/.471 slash line, scoring 15 runs in 18 games.
The first baseman only has two extra-base hits in his past 11 games. That’s not exactly what you’d want to spend $500 million on.
But Guerrero has reached base 22 times in those 11 games. So he’s giving himself plenty of opportunities to come around.
Guerrero is 3-for-5 with two walks against Rays starter Zack Littell.
Varsho over 1.5 bases (+125): I bet on Varsho to go hitless two nights ago. Instead, he homered twice.
Varsho can be a bit boom-or-bust, but today’s matchup is one worth buying in on.
- So far this season, Varsho has five home runs and a .781 SLG versus RHPs (32 at-bats).
- Against Littell, Varsho is 4-for-9 (.444) with a homer and a double.
The sample is still quite small, but Varsho has already made a habit of tattooing the baseball. He’s among the league’s elite class in xSLG (.592), average exit velocity (95.6 mph) and hard-hit rate (57.1%).
Rays vs. Blue Jays picks made at 9:10 a.m. ET on 05/15/2025.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.