A high-scoring series opener didn’t go the Toronto Blue Jays’ way, but they’re back at it on Wednesday night against the Tampa Bay Rays.
The pregame narrative: Tampa scored five runs in the ninth to claw out an 11-9 victory at Rogers Centre on Tuesday. I expect a decent amount of offence tonight as well, despite the over/under being set at just 8 runs.
I’m backing Jonathan Aranda, Brandon Lowe and Bo Bichette to shine in my Blue Jays picks vs. the Rays on May 14.
Blue Jays picks vs. Rays
Best Bet: Aranda over 1.5 bases (+123)
Aranda cashed this bet in the third inning last night, sending a 433-foot blast into the seats in right field at Rogers Centre.
I see plenty of reasons to go back to the well with Aranda, whose .996 OPS ranks fifth in MLB.
If you missed yesterday’s breakdown of this very same pick, here’s a quick summary: Aranda has some of the best bat-to-ball production in the majors so far, and he’s particularly lethal against right-handed pitching.
- According to Baseball Savant, Aranda ranks in 95th percentile or better in xBA, xSLG, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.
- He has a .372/.444/.660 slash line vs. RHPs this season.
- In his career, Aranda has an .820 OPS vs. RHPs and a .511 OPS vs. LHPs.
So far, Toronto righty Chris Bassitt has held Aranda (0-for-6, three Ks) in check. But that’s a tiny sample.
Bassitt’s numbers against left-hitting opponents are suspect. Since 2023, lefty batsmen have posted a .284/.360/.492 slash line against him.
Furthermore, Bassitt has been touched up quite a bit in recent outings. In his past four starts, the veteran has allowed 16 runs on 28 hits (6.04 ERA) over 22.1 innings.
Key stat: In 31 starts, Aranda has gone over 1.5 bases 16 times this season.
Quick pick
Lowe over 0.5 runs (+140): Lowe’s 2025 season has been shaky to say the least. But I love this price for a guy who wields a platoon advantage and bats two spots ahead of Aranda.
As a left-hitting player, Lowe will have the same leg up on Bassitt that Aranda does. Lowe has an .821 career OPS against righties.
Against Bassitt in particular, Lowe is 5-for-11 with three home runs, a double and a walk.
Head-to-head results aren’t everything, but they certainly don’t hurt in this case. Bassitt is reeling, and Lowe should be in a prime position to score from Tampa’s No. 2 spot.
Bichette over 1.5 bases (+105): Bichette is in a rhythm right now, and a better-than-even-money price on multiple bases has my attention.
Check out what the shortstop has accomplished since April 29:
- 16-for-55 (.291)
- .545 SLG
- 2+ bases in 8 of 13 games
- 2.3 bases/game
Bichette’s .322 xBA ranks in the 98th percentile in MLB, and his .515 xSLG ranks in the 82nd percentile.
He has more doubles (13) than walks (12), so you know he’s up there to swing the bat.
Tampa Bay starter Ryan Pepiot has allowed a .494 SLG to opponents this year. And his xERA (4.43) is notably higher than his actual ERA (3.86).
Bichette has never faced Pepiot, but I’m not expecting this matchup to slow the Jays’ star down.
Rays vs. Blue Jays picks made at 11:11 a.m. ET on 05/14/2025.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.