The Toronto Blue Jays and Tampa Bay Rays open up their season series on Tuesday night at Rogers Centre.
The pregame narrative: Toronto lost three, then won three, then lost four. Now the Jays have won four in a row, and a win tonight would mark their longest win streak of the season. Last year, Toronto went 4-9 against Tampa Bay.
I’m backing Jonathan Aranda and fading Daulton Varsho in my Blue Jays picks vs. the Rays on May 13.
Blue Jays picks vs. Rays
Best Bet: Aranda over 1.5 bases (+128)
Hand up, I did not know who Aranda was when the season began.
As a former Baseball America top-100 prospect (pre-2023), though, he’s not a complete unknown in the baseball world. And he’s putting everybody on notice right now.
The 26-year-old infielder has a .342/.429/.553 slash line, good for the fifth-best OPS in the majors (.982).
Baseball Savant loves Aranda’s batted ball profile, too. He ranks in the 94th percentile or better in xBA, xSLG, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.
Aranda is a severe splits guy, and he’ll have the platoon advantage tonight against Toronto right-hander Jose Berrios.
So far in his young career, Aranda’s OPS against righties (.814) is more than 300 points north of his OPS against lefties (.511).
Berrios shrugged off a rough season debut and has a 3.02 ERA since. But he hasn’t been dominant.
Opposing hitters are tagging plenty of Berrios’ offerings, evidenced by his 12.2% barrel rate (12th percentile in MLB) and 90.2 mph average exit velocity (34th percentile).
Aranda is 4-for-8 with two home runs against Berrios.
Key stat: In 30 starts, Aranda has gone over 1.5 bases 15 times this season.
Quick pick
Varsho under 0.5 hits (+110): Varsho’s 2025 sample size is still quite small after he started the year on the injured list. But the early returns have been mixed at best.
The stocky outfielder is 6-for-31 (.194), going hitless in five of eight starts.
Varsho hasn’t had enough plate appearances to be a qualified hitter. But if he did, his .197 xBA would rank near the bottom of MLB, while his 22.2% barrel rate would rank near the top.
It’s an odd dichotomy, to say the least. But keep in mind that Varsho also isn’t putting the ball in play much. Half of his 36 PAs have resulted in a strikeout (15) or walk (three).
Facing Tampa Bay right-hander Shane Baz, the left-hitting Varsho should have a platoon advantage.
But Baz is holding LHHs to a .194 average this year, and Varsho is just a .215 hitter in his career against RHPs.
Rays vs. Blue Jays picks made at 10:41 a.m. ET on 05/13/2025.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.