The Denver Nuggets and Oklahoma City Thunder’s series is now a best-of-three, with the latter having home court advantage.
The pregame narrative: OKC is heavily favoured to win Game 5 at Paycom Center on Tuesday, which would push Denver to the brink of elimination. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has played his best ball at home this season and is odds-on to score 30-plus points.
Check out my Nuggets vs. Thunder SGP predictions for May 13, featuring SGA and Jamal Murray.
Nuggets vs. Thunder predictions
Parlay: Thunder -7.5 | Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ points | Murray 6+ assists (+340)
Thunder -7.5 (-180): The Thunder have been nearly unbeatable at home this season, posting a 38-7 record at Paycom Center throughout the regular season and playoffs.
They lost Game 1 against the Nuggets at home after flatlining in the fourth quarter and blowing an 11-point lead, but responded with an emphatic 149-106 rout two nights later.
I don’t expect another 40-point win, but I’m confident OKC can cover this number.
- The Thunder are 30-13-2 ATS as home favourites this season, winning those games by an average of 16.3 points, according to Team Rankings.
- They have a +27.4 net rating at home in the playoffs. That’s nearly double the next closest team (Los Angeles Clippers +15.0).
Nikola Jokic and Gilgeous-Alexander are the game’s brightest stars, but Denver lacks the depth to compete in this matchup.
The Thunder are scoring the third-most bench points this postseason, while the Nuggets are scoring the second-fewest.
NBA SGP legs
Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ points (-165): Gilgeous-Alexander has been remarkably consistent against this milestone all year.
- 32.7 PPG (NBA-high)
- 30+ points in 49 of 76 starts in regular season (64.4%)
- 30+ points in 4 of 8 playoff starts (50.0%)
The Canadian scored 33 and 34 points in his two home games this series while shooting a combined 23-of-39 from the field. He does a ton of damage at the free-throw line, too, averaging 8.75 FTA/game this postseason.
SGA has scored at least 25 points in 11 of his last 12 games against Denver, reaching this milestone six times.
Murray 6+ assists (-143): Denver’s offence will always run through Jokic, but Murray has been a sneakily productive facilitator this postseason.
He’s cleared this line in seven of 11 games and has been dishing the ball at a slightly higher rate than Jokic against the Thunder.
Murray is averaging 13.8 potential assists per game against OKC, while Jokic is averaging 13.5. NBA.com categorizes a potential assist as a pass that leads directly to a shot.
If he keeps passing at that level, we only need his teammates to make 45% of those shots to cash this wager.
Nuggets vs. Thunder predictions made at 9:50 a.m. ET 05/13/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.