The Cleveland Cavaliers need a win on Tuesday night to stay alive in the second round against the Indiana Pacers.
The pregame narrative: Indiana won Games 1 and 2 on the road before earning a 20-point win on Sunday to push Cleveland to the brink. Now the Cavs are back on home court, where they own a 36-9 record, but their top star is questionable to play.
Check out my Pacers vs. Cavaliers SGP predictions for May 13, featuring Darius Garland and Andrew Nembhard.
Pacers vs. Cavaliers predictions
Parlay: Over 224.5 points | Garland 20+ points | Nembhard over 17.5 points/assists (+370)
Over 224.5 points (-182): These teams have matched up eight times since January, and they’ve largely made a habit of playing some high-scoring hoops.
Overs are 5-3 in Cleveland/Indiana meetings this season — including 3-1 in the postseason.
The lone under in this series was a 230-point total (with the line set at 232 points). And the teams shot a combined 29.9% from 3-point range that night.
All of that is to say, all four playoff matchups have featured 230-plus points.
Both the Pacers and Cavaliers played at top-10 paces during the regular season, and Indiana has had the third-fastest pace in the playoffs.
I expect another solid point total tonight.
NBA SGP legs
Garland 20+ points (-103): Donovan Mitchell re-aggravated a nagging ankle injury in Game 4 that caused him to miss the second half. Mitchell vowed to reporters that he’ll be out there tonight, but there’s no guarantee of how effective he’ll be.
That makes Garland’s presence even more critical.
Having averaged 20.6 points during the regular season, Garland was already looked upon as a centrepiece of the Cavaliers’ offence.
This milestone scoring prop is definitely in range, especially with Mitchell’s status in question.
- Garland has 20+ points in 43 of 79 games (54.4%) this season, playoffs included.
- He had 21 points on 6-of-11 shooting (8-for-8 from the free-throw line) in just 27 minutes in Game 4 vs. Indiana.
Nembhard over 17.5 points/assists (-117): Nembhard was excellent during Games 1 and 2 in Cleveland, cashing this prop easily both times.
- Game 1: 23 points, 6 assists (37 minutes)
- Game 2: 13 points, 13 assists (36 minutes)
The minute totals are as interesting to me as the points/assists totals, because they demonstrate that Nembhard will be on the court in meaningful moments.
He only had 14 PA apiece in Games 3 and 4, but he also played 30 or fewer minutes in both matchups because they were blowouts.
With the hope that tonight’s game is a close one again, Nembhard will hopefully have the opportunity to stay involved as a scorer and passer.
The Aurora, Ontario native is shooting 50.0% from 3-point range and 86.7% from the free-throw line this postseason. He’s averaging 20.2 PA and is 6-3 against this line.
Cavaliers vs. Pacers predictions made at 9:00 a.m. ET 05/13/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.