Aaron Judge headlines Monday’s MLB prop bets.
Today’s MLB props narrative: Judge is amid a herculean start to the season, and is coming off a four-hit game against the Athletics. The reigning AL MVP has an opportunity to do more damage against the Seattle Mariners and Emerson Hancock tonight.
See how I’m targeting Judge alongside Christian Walker in my best MLB prop bets for May 12.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Judge 1+ RBI (+110)
Judge is barreling toward the AL Triple Crown, leading MLB in batting average (.409), home runs (14), and RBI (39).
If that’s not enough to convince you, just take a look at his batted-ball metrics, courtesy of Baseball Savant:
- 100th percentile barrel rate (25.0%)
- 99th percentile average exit velocity (95.9 mph)
- 97th percentile hard-hit rate (57.8%)
Judge’s 100th percentile xSLG (.785) is actually five points higher than his real slugging percentage (.779), so this hot start is nowhere near a fluke.
I looked long and hard at backing the two-time MVP to record multiple bases at -148.
That’s playable, considering he’s reached that threshold in an MLB-best 70.0% of his starts — 23% more than second-place Bobby Witt Jr.
But I’m value hunting, and will instead take him to record an RBI at plus money.
The New York Yankees go up against Hancock, who sports a 5.70 ERA through five starts. The righty ranks in the 16th percentile for xBA (.282), and I trust the bottom of New York’s order to get aboard for Judge.
Key stat: Judge has an RBI in eight of his last 13 games (13 total).
Another MLB pick
Walker over 1.5 bases (+110): Walker is on a heater after a horrible start to the season, and I want in.
- First 19 games: .159 BA, .232 SLG, 2+ bases 4 times
- Last 19 games: .288 BA, .507 SGL, 2+ bases 11 times
Walker is batting .317 in May, recording a hit in eight of nine games, with three going for extra bases.
Tonight, the Houston Astros face Michael Wacha and the Kansas City Royals, and that’s a pitcher Walker has dominated.
The veteran first baseman is 5-for-8 against Walker with two doubles and a home run.
MLB prop picks made at 1:21 p.m. ET on 05/12/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.