The Italian Open rolls into the Round of 16 with some big names left on the men’s side.
Today’s Italian Open narrative: Alex De Minaur is breaking out as an elite all-surface player, and he should continue his run in a matchup he’s dominated in the past. Elsewhere, Daniil Medvedev is the underdog against Lorenzo Musetti but has the tools to pull off the upset victory.
Check out my Italian Open predictions for May 13.
Italian Open predictions
Best Bet: De Minaur -2.5 games (-120)
The Australian is putting up his best start to any season in 2025, going 26-9 to this point (74.3% win rate).
That’s been paired with a 9-3 record on clay, which is a surface he’s struggled on in the past.
De Minaur also historically owns Tommy Paul, his round of 16 opponent:
- 5-0 against the American
- 1-0 on clay (straight-set win)
The 26-year-old has yet to lose a set on this event, while his counterpart is coming off a three-set thriller against Tomas Machac.
While Paul’s 19-7 record (6-2 on clay) is far from bad, he’s fallen short in the big matches.
The No. 12-ranked player is 0-3 this season against players also ranked inside the top 15.
I’ll ride with the momentum of De Minaur, who’s playing the best tennis of his career with strong head-to-head results.
Key stat: De Minaur is 4-1 against this line vs. Paul in his career.
See all Italian Open 2025 odds, matchups and betting markets.
Quick pick
Medvedev to win (+155): In my view, this match should be closer to a pick’em, and I like the value on the underdog.
Musetti has cemented himself as one of the best players on clay, starting 2025 with a 12-2 record on the surface.
Medvedev has been an inconsistent player recently, but there’s reason to believe he’s in top form once again.
Since the start of April, the 29-year-old is 7-2 with his losses coming to De Minaur (No. 8 ranked) and Casper Ruud (No. 7 ranked).
Medvedev has dominated both matches in Rome, beating Cameron Norrie in straight sets before doing the same to No. 25-ranked Alex Popyrin.
He lost only 11 games in two matches against a pair of strong competitors. The Russian looks primed to rise back up the ATP rankings.
Thanks to some deep runs recently, Musetti has played 13 matches since the start of April. He could start showing signs of fatigue in a gruelling match against an equal opponent.
Medvedev is 2-0 against the Italian, winning both meetings in straight sets. Although both were played on hard court surfaces.
Italian Open predictions made at 2:21 p.m. on 05/12/2025.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.