There are four MLB games starting in the 4 p.m. ET window on Sunday, and I’ve got prop bets from three of them.
Today’s MLB props narrative: Jorge Polanco continues to enjoy an inexplicably successful start, and he’ll face a pitcher today that he’s tormented in the past. Elsewhere, Tony Gonsolin will face his biggest test of the early season on the road against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
See how I’m targeting Polanco, Gonsolin and Tyler O’Neill in my best MLB prop bets for May 11.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Polanco over 1.5 bases (+125)
If you haven’t been following the Seattle Mariners, you’re missing a truly shocking early-season surge from Polanco.
The 12th-year veteran, who has just one all-star appearance on his resume, is batting .327 with a 1.026 OPS through 30 games.
And his batted ball metrics — via Baseball Savant — back up those superb numbers:
- 100th-percentile xBA (.350)
- 98th-percentile xSLG (.622)
- 88th-percentile barrel rate (15.4%)
Polanco has amassed 66 bases so far, which equates to 2.2 bases per game. He has cashed this bet in nine of his past 19 games (and in 12 of 30 overall).
The switch-hitting infielder is probably worth targeting regardless of which side of the plate he’s swinging from. But I’m particularly interested in backing him as a left-hitting player.
Against right-handed pitchers this year, Polanco is batting .337 with a 1.078 OPS. And he’s got an enticing matchup against Toronto RHP Jose Urena this afternoon.
Urena has allowed seven runs on 11 hits through 7.1 innings this year and has struggled to solve Polanco in the past.
Key stat: Polanco is 7-for-10 with a double against Urena.
More MLB picks
O’Neill under 0.5 hits (+137): The right-hitting O’Neill has a platoon advantage today, at least in theory, against Angels southpaw Tyler Anderson. But that hasn’t how things have played out so far this year.
- O’Neill has an .889 career OPS vs. lefties and slashed .313/.430/.750 against them last year.
- This year, though, he is just 2-for-22 (.091) vs. lefties with 11 strikeouts.
Anderson (2-0, 2.68 ERA) is off to a great start for L.A. this year, and right-hitting opponents haven’t seemed to figure him out. Righties are batting just .155 with a .497 OPS.
O’Neill, a Maple Ridge, BC native, is hitless in eight of his past 12 games. He’s batting just 4-for-40 in that span.
Given Anderson’s reverse splits and O’Neill’s recent slide, I’m a fan of fading the Baltimore outfielder at a decent price.
Gonsolin over 4.5 Ks (+115): Gonsolin missed all of last season recovering from Tommy John surgery, but he’s enjoyed a triumphant return in the early stages of 2025.
Through two outings, Gonsolin has 17 Ks in 11.0 innings. He generated a 42.7% whiff rate and a 37.7% chase rate in those starts, which would be in the upper tier of the league if extrapolated over a greater data set.
I don’t want to make too much out of a pair of starts, but I do see this as an enticing plus-money price for a pretty low strikeout total.
The Diamondbacks, who Gonsolin will face today, have the fourth-lowest K% in the majors (19.7). But their 21.4 K% in the past two weeks ranks 15th in MLB.
I don’t think this is as daunting of a matchup as it may seem on the surface. Especially since Gonsolin has 17 Ks against the current D-backs lineup already (28.3 K%).
MLB prop picks made at 11:32 a.m. ET on 05/11/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.