The Denver Nuggets can put the Oklahoma City Thunder on the brink of elimination Sunday afternoon when they meet for Game 4 at Ball Arena.
The pregame narrative: After dropping Game 3 in overtime, OKC is favoured to win on the road today and level things up. Neither team’s superstars were at their best last time out, but secondary contributors like Aaron Gordon and Jalen Williams stepped up.
Check out my Thunder vs. Nuggets SGP predictions for May 11, featuring Gordon, Williams and Russell Westbrook.
Thunder vs. Nuggets predictions
Parlay: Gordon 15+ points | Williams 2+ threes | Westbrook under 3.5 rebounds (+350)
Gordon 15+ points (-180): Gordon has been a productive contributor for the Nuggets in the past, and he has an NBA Finals ring to show for it.
But this postseason, he’s really upped his game as a consistent scoring threat.
- 14+ points in 9 of 10 games
- 11+ field-goal attempts in 9 of 10 games
- 1+ made 3s in 9 of 10 games
Gordon has been on fire so far in this series from 3-point range, shooting 9-for-15 (60.0%). He’s also a perfect 11-for-11 from the free-throw line.
The blowout nature of Game 2’s loss kept Gordon below this scoring milestone. But he’s still averaging 18.6 PPG for the series and has 20-plus points in three of his past four.
NBA SGP legs
Williams 2+ threes (-155): After canning 42.7% of his 3-point attempts a season ago, Williams started taking more 3s this year. His efficiency has taken a hit, but the volume typically carries him to this milestone.
- Williams averages 1.8 made 3s on 36.5% shooting during the regular season.
- Though he’s only shooting 27.5% from deep so far in the playoffs, he has 2+ triples in 5 of 7 games.
In Game 3, Williams went 3-for-7 from deep and had a game-high 32 points. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will always be the No. 1 option for OKC’s offence, but J-Dub is the clear No. 2.
An uptick in efficiency should make this an easy cash, but I like Williams’ chances either way.
He’s 5-2 against this milestone prop when facing the Nuggets this year.
Westbrook under 3.5 rebounds (-120): Of Denver’s seven rotation players last game, six finished with at least four rebounds.
Westbrook was the odd man out.
In fact, he only has four total rebounds in the series, cashing this under in all three games.
OKC has a pair of 7-footers, plus an elite rebounding guard in Gilgeous-Alexander. Denver has 280-pound Nikola Jokic, plus four other players averaging north of 4.5 RPG this series.
Coming off the bench, and with so many capable rebounders guaranteed to be on the court at all times, Westbrook looks worthy of a fade in this market again.
Thunder vs. Nuggets predictions made at 9:10 a.m. ET 05/11/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.