The Oklahoma City Thunder and Denver Nuggets’ Western Conference series shifts to the Mile High City on Friday.
The pregame narrative: OKC is favoured to win on the road tonight after a dominant 43-point blowout victory in Game 2. Denver has a 17-5 record at Ball Arena over the last three postseasons and will need to be at its best to retake the series lead.
Check out my Thunder vs. Nuggets SGP predictions for May 9, featuring Chet Holmgren and Jamal Murray.
Thunder vs. Nuggets predictions
Parlay: Thunder ML | Holmgren 2+ threes | Murray 15+ points (+300)
Thunder ML (-220): OKC threw away Game 1 with an uncharacteristic fourth-quarter choke at home. But the Thunder reminded everyone why they’re the title favourites in Game 2, scoring a playoff-best 149 points.
They scored an NBA playoff-record 87 first-half points, posted a collective 50-40-90 shooting line, and had eight players log double-digit points. It was a true beatdown.
- OKC was 23-14-2 ATS as a road favourite this year (second-best among NBA teams with more than 15 games as a road favourite), winning 32 of those games outright.
- The Thunder posted a +12.7 net rating in the regular season, the second-highest of all time behind the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls, and have a +20.1 net rating in the playoffs.
Denver is a tough out at home, especially in the playoffs. But OKC is simply on a different level.
I think this is a great way to start any SGP for Friday night.
NBA SGP legs
Holmgren 2+ threes (+116): Holmgren did his part in Wednesday’s blowout, contributing 15 points and 11 rebounds in 26 minutes of play.
The lanky power forward also went 2-for-3 from deep, and is now shooting a respectable 40.6% from beyond the arc this postseason.
He had hit three-plus 3s in each of his first three games against the Memphis Grizzlies before going on a two-game dry spell. Overall, he’s 4-2 against this line in the playoffs.
Denver should be the right opponent for him to keep firing from beyond the arc.
The Nuggets allowed the 11th-most 3s per game (13.9) at the eighth-highest clip (36.4%) this season.
Murray 15+ points (-375): Murray fell just short of this milestone in Game 2, logging 14 points on nine shots. That said, he’s been reliable against this mark overall.
- 22.9 PPG in playoffs
- 15+ points in 7 of 8 games
- 20+ points in 6 of 8 games
The Thunder are a nightmare matchup defensively, but Murray managed to clear this line in both games against them during the regular season — that includes a 34-point outing in OKC
He averaged 19.5 FGA in those games, and a return to that type of volume would put this leg in a really good spot.
Thunder vs. Nuggets predictions made at 9:00 a.m. ET 05/09/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.