Looking to avoid the wrong end of a sweep, the Toronto Blue Jays wrap up a three-game series on Thursday night against the Los Angeles Angels.
The pregame narrative: Toronto has dropped four in a row, thanks in part to some uncharacteristic lapses from the bullpen. Chris Bassitt, sporting a sub-3.00 ERA through seven starts, looks to help the team right the ship tonight.
I’m backing Bassitt and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in a plus-money combo play as one of my Blue Jays picks vs. the Angels on May 8.
Blue Jays picks vs. Angels
Best Bet: Taylor Ward under 0.5 hits (+138)
Ward opened the season in his typical leadoff spot for the Angels. But when his power numbers outperformed his on-base numbers, he was bumped to the cleanup spot.
Now nothing seems to be going right.
In 12 games since sliding back in the order, Ward has a .095/.156/.190 slash line.
His .177 xBA in that span, per Baseball Savant, isn’t a whole lot better. Neither is the 40.0% strikeout rate it comes with.
Ward has an interesting statistical profile, given that he strikes out a lot for such a choosy hitter. He ranks in the 16th percentile in K rate (28.2%) despite owning a 92nd-percentile chase rate (19.8%).
He’s been caught looking on a whopping 40.0% of his strikeouts this year. For context, the MLB average is 23.0%.
What that tells me is he’s often not even getting the bat off his shoulder … so why should I back him to get a hit?
Ward is 1-for-9 with three Ks and a walk against Bassitt. He’s hitless in nine of his past 12 games, and I expect another dud tonight.
Key stat: Ward’s .226 xBA ranks in the 20th percentile. He only has four hits in his past 47 plate appearances.
Quick pick
Parlay: Bassitt 6+ Ks, Guerrero 1+ hits (+117): I thought about just backing Bassitt over 5.5 Ks as a standalone, but the -155 odds don’t make that a very exciting play.
So if you’re looking for something with a higher payout upside, consider tacking on a hit from Vlad Jr.
Let’s start with Bassitt’s side of things. He’s failed to cashed this bet in three straight starts, but his overall strikeout numbers are still strong.
- 6.1 Ks per start
- 25.7 K% (72nd percentile)
Having pitched into the sixth inning or deeper in six of seven starts, Bassitt should have enough rope to contend for this strikeout milestone. And he’s up against a team with the second-highest K rate in the majors (26.9%).
Now on to Vladdy, who enters Thursday on a nine-game hit streak.
Guerrero faces L.A.’s Jose Siriano, who throws sinkers to right-hitting players 54.0% of the time — and is allowing a .333 opponent BA on that offering.
Vladdy is 13-for-26 against sinkers this year, and his .309 xBA overall ranks in the 93rd percentile.
Blue Jays picks vs. Angels made at 12:10 p.m. ET on 05/08/2025.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.