The Cleveland Cavaliers look to even their second-round series at home on Tuesday night against the Indiana Pacers.
The pregame narrative: Cleveland is a 9-point favourite after dropping Game 1 against the plucky Pacers. Indiana is now 4-1 straight up against Cleveland since January, but another upset win tonight would be a tall order.
Check out my Pacers vs. Cavaliers SGP predictions for Game 2 on May 6, featuring Tyrese Haliburton and Max Strus.
Pacers vs. Cavaliers predictions
Parlay: Pacers +10.5 | Over 224.5 points | Haliburton 10+ assists | Strus 2+ threes (+400)
Pacers +10.5 (-137): The Cavaliers are still -225 favourites to win this series, and I won’t push back on that. But I do expect Indiana to be a pest the whole way through.
In 10 head-to-head matchups since April 2023, Indiana is 10-0 against this alt spread. The Pacers have also won six of those games outright.
Look at this Pacers roster and you’ll find plenty of scoring depth. They had seven rotation players averaging 10.0 points per game or more this season, and six guys went for double figures in Game 1.
Cleveland has higher-end stars with Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley, but the Pacers can roll with a strong lineup for a full 48 minutes. I see value in that.
Indiana is 14-10 ATS as a road underdog, per Team Rankings.
NBA SGP legs
Over 224.5 points (-175): These teams breeze by this alt total last time out, combining for 233 points in Indiana’s victory.
At this number, overs are 7-2 in the past nine Indiana/Cleveland matchups (dating back to the start of the 2023-24 season).
The average score in those nine head-to-head matchups is 231.4 points.
This doesn’t seem like a fluke to me, given that both teams are willing to play at a brisk pace. During the regular season, Indiana and Cleveland both ranked in the top 10 in terms of possessions per game.
Haliburton 10+ assists (-150): Haliburton was the NBA assists leader last year (10.9 APG), clearing a 10-assist average for a second consecutive season.
At 9.2 APG this year, he didn’t quite rise to that standard again. But he’s looking like his old self in the playoffs.
- 11.8 APG (1st in NBA)
- 84.0 passes/game (1st)
- 17.3 potential assists/game (3rd)
- 10+ assists in 5 of 6 games
After Haliburton dished 13 assists in the series opener, I expect him to cash this milestone prop.
Strus 2+ threes (-250): Cleveland shot 9-for-38 (23.7%) from 3-point range in Game 1. That has to be better, and Strus needs to be part of the solution.
Strus went 2-for-8 from the perimeter last time out and should be relied upon for heavy volume again. He has averaged 2.3 threes or more in each of his past four seasons.
And the sixth-year wing is no stranger to postseason play, either.
Over his past 13 playoff games (since April 30, 2024), Strus has averaged 2.8 made 3s on 40.4% shooting.
Pacers vs. Cavaliers predictions made at 9:32 a.m. ET 05/06/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.