The Toronto Maple Leafs and Florida Panthers reignite their rivalry in Game 1 on Monday.
The pregame narrative: The Maple Leafs return to the second round for the second time in the “Core Four” era, facing the same opponent as in 2023, when Florida bested Toronto in five games. Both teams got out to 2-0 series leads in the opening round and look to start on the right foot again.
Auston Matthews and Brad Marchand are featured in my Panthers vs. Maple Leafs playoff SGP predictions for Game 1 on May 5.
Panthers vs. Maple Leafs predictions
Parlay: Under 7.5 goals | Matthews to score 1+ points | Marchand to score 1+ points (+400)
Under 7.5 goals (-480): Toronto’s first game of the playoffs was a barn-burning 6-2 win over the Ottawa Senators. But since then, Craig Berube’s team has committed to playing low-event hockey.
Each of the Maple Leafs’ next five games went under this total, with three featuring four or fewer goals in regulation. And with the defending champs in town, I expect nothing short of a war.
Anthony Stolarz was solid in his first playoff series as a starter, posting a 2.21 GAA and .901 SV%. Those were identical numbers to Sergei Bobrovsky, who has multiple Vezina Trophies under his belt.
I don’t expect either goaltender to be unsolvable on Monday, but I do believe teasing this game total up a few goals gives enough wiggle room.
So far in the playoffs, Toronto (22.61) and Florida (22.4) have allowed the third-fewest and second-fewest shots against per 60, according to Natural Stat Trick.
NHL SGP legs
Matthews to score 1+ points (-265): Matthews was invisible the last time he played Florida in the playoffs, logging just two assists in a series Toronto lost, 4-1.
But the Maple Leafs’ captain had a productive opening round, and I expect that to continue:
- 2 goals, 5 assists
- 26 scoring chances (6th in playoffs)
- 3.32 expected goals (9th in playoffs)
Matthew was 5-1 in this prop market vs. Ottawa, and his line with Mitch Marner and Matthew Knies generated a team-high 58 chances.
He also logged three points on a power play, which had a 35.3% success rate (third-best in playoffs).
Marchand to score 1+ points (+128): Toronto managed to avoid its boogeyman in the Boston Bruins this season, but it couldn’t escape that team’s long-time catalyst, Marchand.
The veteran winger has new threads and a smaller role with Florida, but he’s been effective.
- Marchand had four points in the opening round, cashing this bet in back-to-back games to close out Tampa Bay.
- He has points in six of 10 games dating back to the regular season, including a game against Toronto where he logged an assist.
Marchand personifies all of the Maple Leafs’ playoff demons, and I expect him to be a menace all series long.
Panthers vs. Maple Leafs predictions made at 10:00 a.m. ET 05/05/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.