Round 2 of the NBA playoffs begins on Sunday when the Cleveland Cavaliers host the Indiana Pacers.
The pregame narrative: Both teams look to stay hot after dominating their opening-round opponents. The Pacers toppled the Milwaukee Bucks in five but are an 8.5-point underdog in Game 1 against the No. 1 seed Cavaliers, which just swept the Miami Heat.
Andrew Nembhard and Evan Mobley feature in my Pacers vs. Cavaliers SGP predictions on May 4.
Pacers vs. Cavaliers predictions
Parlay: Pacers +10.5 | Nembhard 10+ points | Mobley over 17.5 points (+290)
Pacers +10.5 (-165): Cleveland has been the best in the conference by a long shot this season, but that doesn’t mean it’ll coast past Indiana.
The Pacers just toppled the Giannis Antetokounmpo-led Bucks and have sneakily been one of the league’s best teams since the all-star break:
- 24-10 record (tied third-most in NBA)
- +5.8 net rating (seventh-best in NBA)
Over that same span, Cleveland is 24-8 with a +10.3 net rating. That’s better, but is it 10.5 points better? I’m not so sure.
Indiana is 3-1 against Cleveland this year and covered this number in the outlying loss. The Pacers have covered this number in 21 of their last 24 games.
NBA SGP legs
Nembhard 10+ points (-225): Tyrese Haliburton runs Indiana’s offence, but I won’t try and guess if he wants to shoot tonight.
There are games where Haliburton is content as a facilitator, and that can make taking his point and 3-point props risky. So instead, I’ll turn to his backcourt partner, Nembhard, who was money against the Bucks in Round 1:
- 15.0 PPG
- 49.2 FG%
- 50.0 3PT%
- 32.2 MPG
Nembhard reached the 15-point milestone in four of five games, so he should be live to clear this teased-down number on Sunday.
The Canadian is 2-2 against this line vs. Cleveland this year, but is taking 3.5 more shots per game in the playoffs than regular season.
Mobley over 17.5 points (-125): Indiana’s defence improved this season, but its one big weakness has been in the mid-range.
The Pacers allowed opponents to shoot 45.1% from that area of the court, which ranked 23rd in the league, according to Cleaning the Glass.
Mobley does a fair amount of damage from that area and is coming off a hyper-efficient series against the Heat, where he shot 59.5% from the field and 47.1% from deep.
The power forward scored 22 and 16 points against Indiana this year, shooting above 60.0% in each game.
Pacers vs. Cavaliers predictions made at 10:52 a.m. ET 05/04/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.