There’s something for everyone in my MLB prop bets as I’m targeting an over and an under.
Today’s MLB props narrative: Weekend series across MLB come to an end on Sunday. I’m looking to back an under in today’s clash between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Philadelphia Phillies, and an under in today’s battle between the Colorado Rockies and San Francisco Giants.
Nick Castellanos and Ryan McMahon feature in my MLB prop bets predictions on May 4.
MLB prop bets
Best Bet: Castellanos under 1.5 total bases (-137)
Castellanos is humming along with another solid season.
The Philadelphia star is slashing .270/.323/.410, getting on base at about his career average while providing a little less power than usual.
There are a few reasons why, however, I’ve uncovered him as a fade candidate on Sunday.
The outfielder hasn’t been delivering on this wager recently. Castellanos has only cashed this prop once in his last five games, providing zero extra-base hits during this stretch.
Secondly, and most importantly, Castellanos has struggled mightily against the pitcher he’ll face today.
He’ll square off against Diamondbacks starter Eduardo Rodriguez, and that is a matchup that doesn’t favour Castellanos.
Rodriguez has held Castellanos to just one hit in 17 plate appearances with six strikeouts.
The Arizona pitcher has struggled this season, entering today’s action with a 6.06 ERA. His 4.04 FIP, however, suggests he’s due for some positive results.
I’m buying into Castellanos’ woes against Rodriguez, however, and betting him to go under this prop at a very fair price.
Key stat: Castellanos has failed to cover this prop in 22 of 33 games (66.6%), a significantly higher rate than these implied odds suggest (57.8%).
Best MLB picks
McMahon over 0.5 hits (-130): This is a pretty palatable line for somebody to deliver just one hit.
There’s a reason why this line is hanging so low, however. McMahon is batting a lowly .153 with a .261 SLG percentage.
McMahon is showing some encouraging signs, though, as he has recorded a hit in two of three games in Colorado’s series against San Francisco.
Additionally, McMahon has dominated the typically strong Logan Webb in the past.
McMahon has 12 hits — including four extra-base hits — in 39 at-bats versus Webb.
The Giants starter is coming off his roughest outing of the season, too. He ceded nine hits and five runs in five innings of work against the San Diego Padres.
These odds and McMahon’s head-to-head success are worth backing.
MLB prop picks made at 12:51 p.m. ET on 05/04/2025.
Stevie’s an avid NFL, NHL, and tennis bettor who has no problem talking himself into the underdog. His previous stops include Yahoo! Sports Canada and Toronto Metropolitan University, where he received a degree in Sport Media.