Casper Ruud and Jack Draper square off in what promises to be an excellent Madrid Open final.
The pregame narrative: Ruud and Draper have navigated an unpredictable Madrid Open and enter Sunday’s matchup with a chance at victory. In a tournament that’s been full of upsets, I’m backing Ruud to win as an underdog in the final.
Check out my Ruud vs. Draper Madrid Open final best bet and the odds for May 4.
Ruud vs. Draper best bet
Go to full Ruud vs. Draper betting markets.
| Betting markets | Odds |
| Ruud to win | +180 |
| Draper to win | -220 |
| Ruud +2.5 games | +107 |
| Draper -2.5 games | -130 |
| Ruud to win in straight sets | +410 |
| Draper to win in straight sets | +125 |
| Over 22.5 total games | -117 |
| Under 22.5 total games | -107 |
Tennis odds as of 12:59 p.m. ET on 05/03/2025.
Best Bet: Ruud to win (+180)
This match feels much closer than the odds suggest.
Ruud has a 35.7% implied probability at this price, which seems a little low even if he’s dealing with a rib injury.
Firstly, Ruud has a very strong track record on clay. He’s 32-9 on this surface since 2024, which is significantly better than his opponent’s mark of 11-8.
This will be Ruud’s second opportunity to win a Masters 1000 on clay. He fell short in the 2024 Monte-Carlo Masters final against Stefanos Tsitsipas.
For Draper, however, this is his very first final appearance at a clay Masters 1000 event.
Both competitors have defeated strong clay-court players at this tournament, but I will give the strength of victory edge to Ruud. The Norwegian has beaten: Taylor Fritz, Daniil Medvedev and Francisco Cerundolo en route to the final.
Draper doesn’t boast the same track record of success on clay that Ruud does. The British tennis star has played just 50 matches on the surface and was a mediocre 24-20 on clay prior to this year’s Madrid Open.
Back Ruud to get it done and win his first-ever Masters 1000 event.
Key stat: Ruud is 244-104 lifetime on clay, notching 20-plus wins on the surface each of the last four years.
Tennis picks made at 1:17 p.m. ET on 05/03/2025.
Stevie’s an avid NFL, NHL, and tennis bettor who has no problem talking himself into the underdog. His previous stops include Yahoo! Sports Canada and Toronto Metropolitan University, where he received a degree in Sport Media.