The Toronto Blue Jays host the Cleveland Guardians for the second game of their weekend series on Saturday.
The pregame narrative: Toronto’s lineup is tough to strike out. Gavin Williams’ inconsistent punch-out skills make him a quality fade candidate in this matchup.
Check out my Guardians vs. Blue Jays prop picks for May 3.
Blue Jays pick vs. Guardians
Best Bet: Williams under 4.5 strikeouts (-106)
Williams possesses some strikeout skills.
- 68th-percentile chase rate (30.2)
- 74th-percentile whiff rate (29.1)
While those are solid numbers, they haven’t translated to elite punchout totals. He has a 56th-percentile strikeout rate (22.8), and he’s topped this total in only three of six games.
I’m skeptical of his chances of doing so in a difficult matchup. The Blue Jays have the second-lowest strikeout rate in MLB (7.09).
Additionally, shorter-than-usual outings are always in Williams’ range of possibilities. He’s pitched five innings or shorter in four of his last six outings, lasting three or fewer twice.
His 5.14 ERA and 4.88 FIP are worrisome in addition to his .275 opponent batting average.
The advanced numbers paint a similar picture, too. Williams enters this contest with a 12th-percentile expected ERA (5.91) and an eighth-percentile expected opponent batting average (.304).
Guardians vs. Blue Jays picks made at 10:49 a.m. ET on 05/03/2025.
Stevie’s an avid NFL, NHL, and tennis bettor who has no problem talking himself into the underdog. His previous stops include Yahoo! Sports Canada and Toronto Metropolitan University, where he received a degree in Sport Media.