All 30 MLB teams are in action on Saturday and I’ve got three prop bets to share.
The pregame narrative: Riley Greene has been tearing the cover off the baseball and has an advantageous matchup. I also have picks starting pitchers Brandon Pfaadt and Patrick Corbin earlier in the evening.
Check out the best MLB prop bets for May 3.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Greene over 1.5 total bases (+117)
The Detroit Tigers slugger is on a tear right now, slashing .400/.455/.733 over the past eight games.
He’s 5-3 against this line over that time. But that’s not the only reason to back Greene.
Kyle Hendricks makes his sixth start of the season for the Los Angeles Angels, and things have been ugly.
- 0-3
- 6.65 ERA (1.39 WHIP)
- .265 opponent xBA
Hendricks is not a strikeout arm, either. He’s in the 7th percentile for K rate (13.3%) and the 3rd percentile for whiff rate (16.0%), per Baseball Savant.
That can work in favour of Greene, who loves to hack. The outfielder has a 31.3% chase rate.
Most importantly, he’s a righty, and Greene is a player who can take advantage of the platoon advantage.
The lefty has a .298 average and .920 OPS against right-handed pitching this season (89 plate appearances).
Key stat: Greene leads the Tigers with 64 total bases.
Best MLB picks
Corbin under 15.5 outs (-130): Corbin got off to a fairly good start to the year, allowing three or fewer runs in each of his first four starts.
He hasn’t worked deep into ball games, though. Corbin’s cleared this line just once, mostly because his 1.58 WHIP has resulted in a high pitch count per inning.
I can’t completely ignore his 3.79 ERA, so I dug deeper, and I believe there is regression to come.
- His 4.66 xERA is much higher than his actual number and ranks in the 28th percentile.
- His opponent xBA of .296 is even worse, ranking in the 12th percentile.
Additionally, the Seattle Mariners have an xBA of .332 in 59 plate appearances against Corbin, who hasn’t had an ERA lower than 5.00 for an entire season since 2020.
Even if the righty continues to get lucky, it’ll take a lot of pitches to do so.
Pfaadt over 5.5 strikeouts (+112): On the other side of the narrative, there’s Pfaadt, who has the best head-to-head stats of any starter on Saturday.
In 35 plate appearances against the current Philadelphia Phillies lineup, Pfaadt has a 42.9% K rate and allows a measly .152 average.
He hasn’t been very effective as a strikeout thrower this season, going under this total in four of six games. But this is a matchup I cannot ignore.
Plus, he’s had six or more Ks in two of his past three starts, which is an indication that he is ramping up as the year progresses.
Pfaadt had a 9.17 K/9 last in 2024.
MLB prop picks made at 12:12 p.m. ET on 05/03/2025.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.