Gunnar Henderson hasn’t met expectations so far, but I think he’s worth backing on Wednesday night’s MLB prop market.
The pregame narrative: I like Henderson to take advantage of a lefty-on-righty matchup, which has been his bread and butter. I’m also backing Teoscar Hernandez to stay clutch at the plate while fading Cristopher Sanchez in his return from injury.
Check out the best MLB prop bets for April 30.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Hernandez over 0.5 RBI (+100)
As a cleanup hitter with three former MVPs batting ahead of him, Hernandez is in one of the most enviable spots in baseball.
It shouldn’t surprise anyone that he leads the league in RBI (31) given all the talent around him. But he’s doing his part, too.
- Hernandez ranks fifth in MLB with a .613 SLG.
- He’s 14-for-33 (.424) with runners in scoring position. And his 234 wRC+ with RISP ranks 11th in the majors.
- Hernandez is batting .400 with nine extra-base hits during his current eight-game hit streak.
Though Hernandez has plenty of home run power — he has nine HRs already — RBI props are more often about traffic on the basepaths.
And the trio of Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman tend to provide that.
Ohtani and Freeman have been especially strong so far, posting a 159 and 172 wRC+, respectively. They’re also a combined 13-for-31 (.419) with seven walks and five extra-base hits against Miami starter Cal Quantrill.
Hernandez is 5-for-18 with a double and a homer against Quantrill. He should have opportunities to do more damage this afternoon.
Key stat: Hernandez has 1+ RBI in 13 of 28 games this season — including six of his past seven.
Best MLB picks
Henderson over 1.5 bases (+100): Henderson got hurt early in spring training and missed the first seven games of the season.
Is that an excuse for his slower-than-expected start? Not really, but it might be part of the reason that things haven’t quite clicked for last year’s fourth-place AL MVP finisher.
Henderson is still mashing the ball, ranking in the 99th percentile for average exit velocity and the 95th percentile for hard-hit rate, per Baseball Savant. He’s just not squaring it up often enough.
The left-hitting shortstop knows how to capitalize on a platoon advantage, though. He has a .932 OPS vs. righties this year (.901 career OPS vs. RHPs).
Henderson has cashed this bet in three of his past four games. And he’s 3-for-5 lifetime against Yankees right-hander Carlos Carrasco, who he’ll face tonight.
Sanchez under 5.5 Ks (-118): Sanchez was removed after 2.0 innings in his start last week due to tightness in his throwing arm.
It’s a good sign that he’s not missing a turn in the rotation, but I’m still a bit wary of a potential flare-up.
Furthermore, Sanchez hasn’t racked up strikeouts against the Washington Nationals in the past. The Nats’ active lineup has a paltry 13.0% K rate against Sanchez in 77 plate appearances (league average is 22.1%).
Sanchez was an all-star and a down-ballot Cy Young candidate last year with just a 7.6 K/9. He doesn’t need big strikeout numbers to succeed.
He went under this strikeout total in 19 of 31 starts last season, and I think he’ll do that again tonight.
MLB prop picks made at 1:30 p.m. ET on 04/30/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.