Bowden Francis is expected to start for the Toronto Blue Jays on Tuesday when they host the Boston Red Sox at Rogers Centre.
The pregame narrative: I have mixed feelings on Francis, but I do expect him to work deep into tonight’s game for Toronto. On Boston’s side of things, I’m targeting two platoon-advantaged hitters — Rafael Devers and Wilyer Abreu.
Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. Red Sox for April 29.
Blue Jays picks vs. Red Sox
Best Bet: Francis over 17.5 outs (-130)
I faded Francis’ outs prop his last time out, and it cashed. I’m still not high on the right-hander based on the quality of contact he’s allowing, but I do think he can stick around for a fairly lengthy outing tonight.
The Blue Jays were off Monday, but that was on the heels of a doubleheader in New York on Sunday.
As it stands right now, the Jays appear to be lining up for a bullpen game tomorrow night before the four-man rotation turns over on Thursday.
With that in mind, it’d be really nice for Toronto to get some length from Francis. It’s no guarantee, but the team should be motivated to give him a longer leash in order to maximize relief options for Wednesday.
It also helps to know that Francis has great (albeit limited) numbers against the active Red Sox lineup:
- .103 opponent BA (3-for-29)
- .172 opponent SLG
- 35.5 K%
Across two starts against Boston last season, Francis tossed 12.0 innings of scoreless, four-hit ball while striking out nine.
Key stat: Dating back to 2024, Francis has gone over 17.5 outs in five of his past six home starts.
Quick pick
Devers over 0.5 runs (-118): Francis has fared much better against righties than lefties this season, which makes the left-hitting Devers an enticing target in this matchup.
- Francis vs. LHHs: .858 OPS
- Francis vs. RHHs: .662 OPS
Devers’ .907 career OPS against righties means this platoon advantage works on both sides of the coin. And he’s doing a great job of getting on base right now.
Devers has reached base at least twice in eight of his past 11 games — and he’s scored in nine of this past 12.
From the No. 2 spot in Boston’s order, Devers is in a great spot to be driven in.
Abreu over 1.5 bases (+110): Someone I hope will have the chance to drive Devers in is Abreu, another hitter from the left side who enjoys facing righties.
The third-year outfielder has a career .280/.357/.505 slash line versus righties. By comparison, he’s only slugging .250 against lefties.
Abreu has gone over 1.5 bases in 11 of 24 starts. He ranks in the 80th percentile or better in hard-hit rate, barrel rate, xSLG and xwOBA.
Francis is allowing a .304 xBA (ninth percentile), so I think Abreu is well worth targeting tonight.
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays picks made at 4:00 p.m. ET on 04/29/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.