Barcelona and Inter Milan take part in the first leg of their Champions League semifinal.
The pregame narrative: The Spanish club is coming off a big win at the Copa Del Rey final this past weekend and is the favourite to win this competition. I’ll take the Italian side to at least score a goal, though, mixed with the under and a prop pick on Ferran Torres in this +340 SGP.
Check out my Barcelona vs. Inter Milan SGP predictions for April 30.
Barcelona vs. Inter Milan predictions
Parlay: Under 3.5 goals | Inter Milan over 0.5 goals | Torres over 2.5 shots (+340)
Under 3.5 goals (-177): Inter is one of Europe’s top defensive clubs.
- I Nerazzurri allows the fewest goals per game of any club in the Champions League (0.4).
- That includes eight clean sheets as well as going under this total in 9 of their 11 matches.
- For even more context, the club has given up just five goals across this entire competition.
Barcelona leads all UCL competitors with a whopping 3.1 goals per match, but I expect its opponent to take a risk-free approach for the first leg on the road.
Barca will be without top-scoring striker, Robert Lewandowski, for this leg. His absence should hinder the offence.
In six away matches for Inter, eight goals have been scored in total. Only two of those came from its opponents.
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Champions League SGP legs
Inter Milan over 0.5 goals (-235): A lot of that final statement can be applied to this leg as well. But let’s dive a little deeper.
As good as Barcelona is on offence, its defence can be a weakness. The club has allowed 17 goals, which is more than triple Inter’s five.
That includes conceding in eight of 12 UCL matches.
Barca has had a fairly easy route to this point, beating Portuguese side Benfica in the Round of 16 and then an underachieving Borussia Dortmund team in the quarterfinal.
This feels like a huge test for the Spanish Giants.
Torres over 2.5 shots (-148): I want to close out this SGP by taking advantage of Torres’ shots prop in his teammate’s absence.
As previously mentioned, Lewandowski will be sidelined for this match. Those are big shoes to fill for any replacement.
And Torres has played reserve minutes all season long, but he’s been effective when playing more than 70 minutes in a match.
In that scenario, across all competitions, he’s averaging 3.6 shots and is 6-2 against this line.
In his most recent performance against Real Madrid, the striker played 114 minutes in Lewandowski’s first game out. He cleared this line with four total shots.
Barcelona vs. Inter Milan predictions made at 11:26 a.m. on 04/29/25.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.