The Indiana Pacers can send the Milwaukee Bucks packing on Tuesday night with a win in Game 5.
The pregame narrative: It’s been a nightmare series for Milwaukee, which just lost superstar guard Damian Lillard to a torn Achilles tendon. I expect Giannis Antetokounmpo to do his thing and AJ Green to hit a pair of threes. Still, Indiana seems like a safe bet to win and advance.
Check out my Bucks vs. Pacers playoff SGP predictions for Game 5 on April 29.
Bucks vs. Pacers predictions
Parlay: Pacers -3.5 | Giannis 30+ points | Green 2+ threes (+280)
Pacers -3.5 (-250): Milwaukee has tormented Indiana for years with Giannis at the helm, but the tables have finally turned.
The Pacers are dominating this series. They have a +37 point differential through four games, covering a -7.5 spread in each win. That includes victories of 19 and eight points at home.
Milwaukee’s lone win came on its home court and required a Herculean 37-point night from Gary Trent Jr.
Indiana is a dominant 31-11 at home through the regular season and playoffs, while Milwaukee is an underwhelming 20-22 on the road.
The Bucks are 6-14 straight up as road underdogs.
NBA SGP legs
Giannis 30+ points (-225): This could be Giannis’ last game as a Buck, and if it is, I expect him to go out with a bang.
The Greek Freak has been unstoppable this series, averaging 33.8 PPG on 62.2% shooting. He’s cleared this line in three of four games while landing on 28 points in the outlier.
He is 11-4 against this line in his last 15 games against the Pacers.
Indiana allowed the fourth-most PPG to power forwards this season, according to Fantasy Pros, so there’s no reason to believe Giannis will slow down.
He’s had the second-highest usage rate in the playoffs and should get minutes until the bitter end.
Green 2+ threes (-180): Green has been a reliable 3-point shooter for Milwaukee all season. Coming off the bench, he averaged 2.1 makes on 5.0 attempts per game (42.7%).
He’s shot north of 40.0% in all three of his NBA seasons and has turned up the heat this series, going a collective 12-of-25 from deep (48.0%).
- Game 1: 5-of-11
- Game 2: 0-of-1
- Game 3: 4-of-8
- Game 4: 3-of-5
Green only played 12 minutes in a tightly-contested Game 2 with Lillard in the lineup. I expect the Pacers to have a large lead in this one, meaning Green should be on mop-up duty.
Pacers vs. Bucks predictions made at 10:45 a.m. ET 04/29/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.