Knotted at two games apiece, the Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Clippers meet at Ball Arena on Tuesday for Game 5.
The pregame narrative: This series has been played at a methodical pace, and an alt under looks like the play once again. This +390 SGP also features prop bets on Kawhi Leonard, James Harden and Aaron Gordon.
Check out my Clippers vs. Nuggets playoff SGP predictions for Game 5 on Tuesday, April 29.
Clippers vs. Nuggets predictions
Parlay: Under 212.5 points | Gordon under 1.5 threes | Harden 8+ assists | Leonard 20+ points (+390)
Under 212.5 points (-162): I have this pick in my +269 NBA parlay for Tuesday night, and it feels like a good way to get this SGP started.
Unders are 4-0 in this series, and three of the four games went under this total.
The exception was a game that went to overtime. But all four matchups totalled 207 points or fewer in regulation.
This series has been played at a snail’s pace, with the teams averaging just 91.13 possessions per game. For context, the slowest-paced team during the regular season averaged 96.51 possessions (Orlando Magic).
In five head-to-head meetings in Denver this year, unders are 4-1.
NBA SGP legs
Gordon under 1.5 threes (-186): Gordon had a remarkably efficient season from 3-point range, but this is a tough matchup to excel in. Especially since he’s not putting up huge numbers volume-wise.
- Gordon averaged 1.5 makes on 43.6 3PT% during the regular season.
- So far in this series, he’s 5-for-13 (38.5%) from deep, hitting this under in 3 of 4 games.
The Clippers aren’t giving the Nuggets any room to breathe beyond the arc in this series, which is part of the reason why Gordon hasn’t taken many 3s.
Denver is attempting just 28.5 threes per game, which is the fewest of all playoff teams.
Gordon has gone under 1.5 threes in six of seven matchups against the Clippers overall this season. The opportunities just don’t seem to be there for him to have a big night beyond the arc.
Harden 8+ assists (-278): Harden is doing his thing as the primary facilitator for the Clippers, and I like his chances of putting up another solid assist total tonight.
- Coming off an 11-assist effort, Harden has cashed this milestone in 3 of 4 playoff games.
- He’s averaging 9.4 assists in eight matchups against Denver on the season.
Harden ranks fifth among playoff performers in potential assists per game (14.8), which denotes passes that immediately lead to a shot. I suspect he’ll continue putting his teammates in position to score.
Leonard 20+ points (-335): One of the teammates Harden should be particularly inclined to get the ball to is Leonard.
It’s been a great series for the ex-Toronto Raptor, who’s averaging 26.5 PPG on 56.2/47.6/87.5 shooting splits.
Leonard has 20-plus points in all four games, building on a stellar finish to the regular season.
Dating back to March 11, Leonard has now cashed this milestone points prop in 19 consecutive games.
It’s fair if you’d prefer to eschew a -335 parlay leg, but it takes this ticket from +240 to +390. Given how consistent Leonard has been, I’ll take it.
Nuggets vs. Clippers predictions made at 12:10 p.m. ET 04/29/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.