The Toronto Maple Leafs have another chance to close things out against the Ottawa Senators.
The pregame narrative: Ottawa kept its season alive with a Game 4 overtime win. The series shifts back to Toronto and I’m taking the Leafs to win. This +350 SGP includes picks on Matthew Knies and Tim Stutzle, too.
Check out my Senators vs. Maple Leafs playoff SGP predictions for Game 5 on April 29.
Senators vs. Maple Leafs predictions
Parlay: Maple Leafs ML | Knies to score 1+ points | Stutzle to score 1+ points (+350)
Maple Leafs moneyline (-176): I’m sure many Leafs fans are starting to get flashbacks as the nerves creep in before Game 5.
But I’m not so worried. This Toronto team is different, and that started at home this season.
- The Leafs were 27-13-1 when playing at Scotiabank Arena.
- Coming into the postseason, Toronto won the final nine games at home. It then used home-ice advantage to take a 2-0 series lead.
Three straight games in this series have gone to overtime, but I expect a performance similar to Game 1, where the Leafs won 6-2.
Ottawa is a lacklustre 18-21-4 on the road this year, including the playoffs.
NHL SGP legs
Knies to score 1+ points (-165): The first-line winger has goals in three of the four games in this series.
He’s yet to record an assist, but playing with Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner on the top line will continue to provide Knies with opportunities to find his way onto the score sheet.
Knies is also a part of the always dangerous five-forward player-play unit that also includes John Tavares and William Nylander.
The Leafs went 5-for-13 (38.5%) with the man advantage through the first four games.
Toronto should be buzzing at home, led by the top line and power play. Both of which include Knies, who has a reasonable price on his point prop.
Stutzle to score 1+ points (-148): Stutzle was Ottawa’s driving force this year, scoring 79 points in 82 games.
He’s been rather quiet in this series, but still has a point in two of the first four games. If I include the regular season, Stutzle is 5-2 against the line vs. the Leafs.
Game 4 was also a must-win for the Senators, and their top centre was on the ice a ton. He played north of 23 minutes and scored a goal. He should carry a similar workload in another do-or-die Game 5.
If the Sens go down early, they will push relentlessly to even things up. If they take an early lead, I like the chances of Stutzle being involved in the play.
Senators vs. Maple Leafs predictions made at 9:33 a.m. ET 04/29/2025.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.