The Toronto Maple Leafs have another chance to eliminate the Ottawa Senators and win the Battle of Ontario on Tuesday.
The pregame narrative: Ottawa avoided a sweep on Saturday night but is still on the brink of elimination as the series shifts back to Toronto. Morgan Rielly has been solid for the Maple Leafs, and Brady Tkachuk has points in three straight for the Senators. I’m betting on both to produce.
Check out my Senators vs. Maple Leafs prop picks for Game 5 of the opening round.
Senators vs. Maple Leafs picks
Best bet: Tkachuk to register a point (-129)
Tkachuk was held pointless in the series opener, but it wasn’t for lack of effort.
The Senators’ captain fired five pucks on net and generated a game-high 11 chances in the loss. Tkachuk doesn’t kill penalties and saw just under 17 minutes of ice time as his team made a conga line to the penalty box.
Things have gone much better for Tkachuk and Ottawa since, even though Toronto has walked away with wins in two of the past three games.
- Game 2: One goal, five shots, 20:18 TOI
- Game 3: One goal, four shots, 17:19 TOI
- Game 4: One assist, one shot, 21:24 TOI
If the Sens want any chance of pulling off a historic comeback, Tkachuk will need to be front and centre.
Anthony Stolarz has been great for the Maple Leafs in net but just turned in his worst game of the series, allowing four goals on 21 shots.
That could be cause for concern, as the netminder is reaching uncharted territory in terms of workload. He’ll be making his 39th appearance of the season after never playing more than 28 games in previous years.
Toronto is also allowing the sixth-most chances on a 60-minute basis this postseason (64.31), according to Natural Stat Trick.
Most of those aren’t from high-danger areas, but throwing pucks on the net tends to lead to greasy goals in the postseason.
Key stat: Tkachuk leads all Senators in shots (15) and chances (32) this series.
Game 5 prop prediction
Rielly over 1.5 shots (+110): Rielly has turned up the heat in the postseason, as is tradition.
The longest-tenured Maple Leafs has three points (two goals) in four games, and is third in average TOI (22:35). I’m happy to back Rielly to record a point at +128, but I think this is a safer option.
The rearguard has cleared this line in three of four games and is coming off a four-shot outing on Saturday.
His 21 shot attempts are fourth among all Maple Leafs skaters. Only nine of those have found the net, but Craig Berube’s coaching staff has placed a clear emphasis on firing pucks from the point.
Rielly should stick to that game plan on Tuesday.
Maple Leafs vs. Senators prop picks made at 2:03 p.m. ET 04/28/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.