The Golden State Warriors hope to have Jimmy Butler back tonight to help them stay ahead of the Houston Rockets in their first-round playoff matchup.
The pregame narrative: I’m backing Butler on a very modest assists prop, while Steph Curry and Amen Thompson should be relied upon to put up points. This four-leg, +420 SGP also features an alt total.
Check out my Rockets vs. Warriors playoff SGP predictions for April 28.
Rockets vs. Warriors predictions
Parlay: Under 208.5 points | Curry 25+ points | Butler 4+ assists | Thompson 10+ points (+420)
Under 208.5 points (-205): Once again, the under cashed in Game 3 of this series. That marks seven consecutive unders when Houston and Golden State square off.
It makes sense, given that both teams ranked inside the top eight in scoring defence and defensive rating during the regular season.
The average point total in their eight head-to-head meetings is 200.8 points.
Houston and Golden State have now gone seven consecutive games in which one or both teams finished below 100 points.
In the playoffs, the Warriors’ defence ranks third in steals per game and opponent points on fast breaks. The Rockets’ defensive strength has been clogging the paint, where they’re allowing the second-fewest points of any playoff team.
NBA SGP legs
Curry 25+ points (-186): Curry has been superb in this series, cresting the 30-point mark twice in three games.
Houston is typically one of the best 3-point defences in the league … but Curry is no average foe. He’s 14-of-31 from deep and should continue firing from the outside.
Curry’s 24.5 PPG scoring average this year was his lowest in a full season since 2014-15. But he knows how to turn it up in the playoffs.
- Over his past 16 playoff games — dating back to 2023 — Curry is averaging 30.2 PPG.
- He has 25+ points in 13 of those 16 matchups.
Butler’s potential return could mean fewer shooting opportunities, but I still expect Curry to reach this milestone.
In his past 25 games alongside Butler, Curry is averaging 26.5 PPG.
Butler 4+ assists (-435): I considered playing Butler over 5.5 assists as a straight wager. This dumbed-down milestone should be comfortably attainable.
- Prior to going down with an injury in Game 2, Butler had averaged 5.9 APG with the Warriors in 31 games.
- During his regular-season tenure with Golden State, Butler led the team in assists (5.9/game) and potential assists (12.6).
- Butler had 4+ assists in 27 of 31 games when healthy for the Warriors.
He may have the nickname “Jimmy Buckets,” but Butler is more than capable of swinging to an open teammate.
Thompson 10+ points (-235): Thompson made strides across the board in his sophomore season as he took more ownership within the Rockets’ offence.
He’s still not an outside scoring threat, but he’s always in play for 10 or more points.
- Thompson has 30 points in this series, going 2-1 against this line. He missed out in the series opener with eight points on nine shots (uncharacteristically going 0-for-4 from the free-throw line).
- Since the start of the season, Thompson has 10+ points in 6 of 8 meetings with the Warriors.
Last time out, Thompson was just 5-of-16 from the floor and finished with 11 points. I’m choosing to take that shot volume as a positive moving forward.
Thompson averaged 14.1 PPG during the regular season and had a 73.9% hit rate on this milestone.
Rockets vs. Warriors predictions made at 12:10 p.m. ET 04/28/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.