I’m fading one guard and backing another for Monday night’s NBA playoff doubleheader.
The pregame narrative: Davion Mitchell has been an unsung star of the first round for the soon-to-be-bounced Miami Heat. I’m sticking with what has been a very profitable prop market for him, while Fred VanVleet has solid value on an under.
Check out the best NBA prop bets for first-round playoff action on April 28.
NBA prop bets
Best Bet: Mitchell over 18.5 points/assists (-118)
I know this isn’t the flashiest play out there, but I keep coming back to it because it keeps cashing.
The ex-Toronto Raptor is 10-4 against this prop since March 23.
Mitchell has been the primary ball-handler for the Heat in their first-round series, but he’s also had to take matters into his own hands when teammates’ shots aren’t falling.
So far in the postseason, Mitchell is averaging 17.7 potential assists per game, which refers to passes that immediately lead to a shot. And that’s the third-highest among all playoff performers.
But Mitchell is only averaging 6.7 assists, meaning a 37.9% conversion rate on his potential assists. Other primary passers like Tyrese Haliburton, James Harden and Jalen Brunson are all over 60.0%.
I take this to mean that Mitchell could see some positive regression if the pass volume holds. But also, it might be further incentive for him to continue shooting.
Mitchell is 22-for-32 (68.8 FG%) from the floor in the playoffs. He has 16-plus points in each game.
It’s fair to think his shooting efficiency will regress, but the passing side of things should make up for that.
This might be the last game of the year to bet on Mitchell in this market, and I’m not going to miss out.
Key stat: In the first round, Mitchell is averaging 17.3 points and 6.7 assists (24.0 PA) against the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Best NBA picks
VanVleet under 2.5 threes (+100): Betting against VanVleet failed me in Game 4, as he slogged his way to 17 points on 5-for-14 shooting.
I still think he’s generally worth fading, though, and at an even-money price, I think this is the right way to do it.
VanVleet is 6-for-29 (20.7%) from 3-point range in this series. Yes, that’s a lot of 3s, and therein lies the risk. But he’s just not hitting them at anything close to a respectable clip.
That’s been a theme for the veteran guard all year against the Golden State Warriors.
Under 2.5 threes is 5-2 when VanVleet faces the Warriors, and he’s shooting 21.3% from deep in those games. Playing the averages, I see enough value here to buy in.
NBA prop picks made at 11:00 a.m. ET on 04/28/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.