Coming off strong outings, Jamal Murray and Davion Mitchell are two of my three NBA prop targets for Saturday’s playoff slate.
The pregame narrative: Murray and Mitchell are both solid options to clear their points/assists props tonight, which they’ve been making a habit of recently. On a more negative note, Fred VanVleet is worth a fade amid some truly nightmarish shooting performances.
Check out the best NBA prop bets for first-round playoff action on April 26.
NBA prop bets
Best Bet: Mitchell over 17.5 points/assists (-121)
Mitchell has earned himself a nice raise this offseason, as the restricted-free-agent-to-be is putting up some sweet postseason numbers.
- Game 1: 18 pts (8-of-12 shooting), nine assists
- Game 2: 18 points (7-of-9 shooting), six assists
Here we have a situation where the fourth-year guard has cashed this bet with his scoring production alone.
Combine that with the fact that he’s acting as the team’s primary facilitator, and we’ve got something cooking here.
Mitchell is averaging 19.0 potential assists per game through two playoff matchups. That’s second in the NBA behind only Nikola Jokic. He also leads the Heat in passes made and received.
Since March 23, Mitchell has cashed this bet in 10 of 13 games.
Key stat: In three games against Cleveland since the beginning of March, Mitchell has averaged 15.0 points and 7.3 assists.
Best NBA picks
VanVleet under 12.5 points (-108): I’ve already touted this pick elsewhere, but in case you missed it, I think it’s worth repeating for emphasis.
VanVleet is 6-for-27 from the floor in this series, totalling just 17 points and finishing under this total in both games.
Last time out, the Rockets won by 15 points in a game where VanVleet had seven points on eight shots. So it’s not like they need him to succeed.
In his final 20 games of the regular season, VanVleet averaged 11.7 PPG on 34.2% shooting. Woof.
Also, he’s gone under 12.5 points in five of six games against the Warriors this season, finishing at exactly 13 points in the outlier.
Murray over 26.5 points/assists (-118): I targeted Murray on this prop market in Game 3, and he cashed it despite Denver’s overall struggles.
Murray had 23 of the Nuggets’ 83 points, and he added four assists as well. He’s 3-0 against this line so far in this series.
It’s no secret that Nikola Jokic steers the ship for the Nuggets, but Murray is a competent co-pilot who should continue to be relied upon for significant minutes and offensive production.
Murray is 5-2 vs. this line when facing the Clippers this season, averaging 27.0 PA in those matchups.
NBA prop picks made at 9:55 a.m. ET on 04/26/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.