The Toronto Maple Leafs can put a stranglehold on the Battle of Ontario as the series shifts to Ottawa.
The pregame narrative: Expect the Senators to throw everything at the wall on Thursday night while facing the prospect of going down 3-0. My best bet for Game 3 is the over, and I’m also looking for Morgan Rielly and Jake Sanderson to be involved offensively.
Check out my Maple Leafs vs. Senators best bets for Game 3 of the opening round.
Maple Leafs vs. Senators best bets
Best bet: Over 5.5 goals (-118)
Ottawa has found itself down early in both games.
A quick lead for Toronto might seem nice for this over, but Craig Berube’s side can clog things up and turn the game into a slog when playing from ahead.
We just saw that in Game 2, when the Maple Leafs put things in neutral after going up 2-0 through eight minutes en route to a 3-2 overtime win.
I’m expecting Ottawa to score first, and for Toronto to return in kind. Or at least for the Senators to respond immediately to a Maple Leafs goal.
With Linus Ullmark struggling (.800 SV% through two games, career .876 playoff SV%), the Sens can’t afford to let the game come to them.
If Ottawa gets up early, this could turn into a legit barn-burner. And if the home team is forced to cheat chasing a lead, Toronto could really lay a beating on its rival.
The Maple Leafs scored the seventh-most goals per game during the regular season (3.26) and have a red-hot power play.
Key stat: Toronto went over a 5.5-goal total in 28 of 41 road games this year.
Quick picks
Rielly to score 1+ points (+165): Rielly is coming off a dreadful regular season, but the longest-tenured Maple Leaf has a knack for showing up in the postseason.
He’s scored in both games so far and now has a point in 13 of his last 20 postseason games dating back to the 2022-23 season (17 total points).
In the last five postseasons, Rielly has the highest 5-on-5 points per 60 (1.83) of any defenceman with more than 20 games played.
This seems like a great value play to me.
Sanderson over 2.5 shots on goal (+125): I took this bet in Game 1 and it cashed. I’ll gladly go back to the well on Thursday, and here’s why:
- Toronto had the fourth-worst 5-on-5 Corsi rate (shot attempt differential) in the NHL during the regular season, according to Natural Stat Trick.
- The Maple Leafs have been out-shot (61-45) and out-chanced (148-95) through two games.
Plenty of these shot attempts are low-quality and coming from the outside or at the point. That’s exactly where Sanderson, Ottawa’s top-scoring defenceman, is firing from.
The 22-year-old led the team in ice time (24:26) and was second in shots (195) during the regular season. He’s played a team-high 54:30 through two games.
Sanderson has logged at least two shots in 12 straight games, clearing this line eight times.
Senators vs. Maple Leafs prop picks made at 11:10 a.m. ET 04/24/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.