A trio of guards make up my NBA prop bets for Thursday’s playoff tripleheader.
The pregame narrative: Jamal Murray has been solid for the Denver Nuggets, and he needs to keep that up in order for his squad to have a chance at moving on. The same goes for Jalen Brunson, while Desmond Bane is my favourite fade candidate right now.
Check out the best NBA prop bets for first-round playoff action on April 24.
NBA prop bets
Best Bet: Murray over 26.5 points/assists (-112)
I’m not one to doubt Nikola Jokic, but I don’t think his workload is sustainable.
Jokic played 46 minutes in Game 1 and 43 minutes in Game 2. He had never played 43-plus minutes in consecutive games in his NBA career before this series.
With that in mind, the Nuggets need as much (or more) from Murray as they’ve gotten so far.
Despite some so-so shooting in Game 1, Murray has put up strong enough numbers to cash this bet in both matchups:
- Game 1: 21 points (7-for-20), seven assists
- Game 2: 23 points (9-for-17), six assists
Jokic is the primary scorer, rebounder and facilitator for the Nuggets. He had an MVP-calibre season and will need to keep chugging along to give Denver a chance.
I just think the Nuggets will need to put a governor on him if they want a shot at a deep playoff run.
Murray averaged 27.4 points/assists during the regular season, so this number is within reach even if he doesn’t elevate his usage rate.
Key stat: Murray has cashed this bet in three consecutive games against the Clippers, and he’s averaging 27.0 PA against them this year.
Best NBA picks
Bane under 2.5 threes (+117): I faded Bane at this number last time out, and it cashed. So of course I’m content to run it back with plus-money odds.
During the regular season, the Thunder allowed the NBA’s lowest opponent 3-point percentage (34.2%). So far in this series, they’ve held the Grizzlies to 16-of-65 (24.6%) shooting from deep.
Bane has now seen OKC six times and is shooting 27.5% beyond the arc. He’s just 5-for-25 from deep against the Thunder in the past four meetings.
Overall, Bane has gone under 2.5 threes in 44 of 71 games.
This is a great price to fade Bane in a brutal matchup.
Brunson over 28.5 points (-110): Whether all his points are ethically sourced or not, Brunson is putting up huge numbers on the offensive end, and I expect that to continue.
Brunson shot 12-for-27 in Games 1 and 2 and had 10-plus free-throw attempts in both games as well.
The whistle might be less friendly in Detroit, but the all-star guard is capable of getting buckets in a myriad of ways.
And nobody has to remind the Pistons.
In six matchups against Detroit this season, Brunson has averaged 30.7 PPG and cashed this bet five times.
NBA prop picks made at 9:45 a.m. ET on 04/24/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.