The Toronto Maple Leafs hold a 2-0 series lead in the playoffs for the first time since 2002.
The pregame narrative: Auston Matthews is without a goal so far, but I predict that will change in Game 3. My best bet for the game, however, is on Brady Tkachuk.
Check out my Maple Leafs vs. Senators prop picks for Game 3 of the opening round.
Maple Leafs vs. Senators picks
Best bet: Tkachuk over 3.5 shots (-136)
Toronto is up 2-0, but the team has been heavily outshot in this series.
- Game 1: Ottawa outshot Toronto, 33-24
- Game 2: Ottawa outshot Toronto, 28-21
Tkachuk easily cleared this line in both games, recording five shots in each. Now, the Senators return home, where they are 27-11-3 this season.
The Leafs allowed the eighth-most shots per game this year (29.3). Even though a lot of those are low-quality chances, the result is the same for this wager.
Tkachuk played north of 20 minutes in Game 2, which is well above his average (18:14).
Put it all together, and you’ve got a handful of compelling reasons why Ottawa’s captain should continue to generate offence.
Key stat: Tkachuk led the league with 4.11 shots per game during the regular season.
Game 3 prop prediction
Matthews anytime goalscorer (+118): I think Leafs fans would agree that it’s time for Matthews to get on the board as a scorer.
Although he only has two goals in his last 10 games vs. Ottawa, this is a matchup the Leafs’ captain has historically dominated.
- Matthews has played 37 games against the Sens in his career and has 25 goals and 26 assists in those meetings.
- He has 102 goals since the beginning of last season, which leads the NHL.
It’s not that Matthews hasn’t been productive. He has three assists and nine shots through Games 1-2.
He should be out there for 20-plus minutes with some added opportunities on a red-hot power play that’s 4-for-6 in this series.
It’s only a matter of time before Matthews is on the receiving end of an assist rather than vice versa.
Maple Leafs vs. Senators prop picks made at 2:10 p.m. ET 04/23/2025.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.