The Houston Astros look to complete a sweep against the Toronto Blue Jays on Wednesday night in East Texas.
The pregame narrative: Bowden Francis gets the ball for Toronto, and I think he’s due for some regression. I’m fading Francis’ outs total and backing the Astros to cover an alt run line.
Check out my +250 SGP Blue Jays vs. Astros predictions for April 23.
Blue Jays vs. Astros predictions
SGP: Astros +1.5 | Pena over 0.5 hits | Francis under 17.5 outs (+250)
Astros +1.5 (-190): Toronto is playing .500 ball right now, but its record is propped up by some positive results at home.
On the road, the Jays are 4-7 with a -9 run differential. They’ve only covered a -1.5 run line twice.
Houston, meanwhile, is playing just north of .500 ball thanks to an 8-6 home record that comes with a +14 run differential. The Astros have covered a +1.5 run line nine times at Daikin Park.
And of course, the Astros are on the cusp of issuing a series sweep to the Jays tonight. Houston hasn’t even trailed yet in this series.
MLB SGP legs
Jeremy Pena over 0.5 hits (-210): Pena is riding a 13-game hitting streak, and I say he extends it to 14 tonight.
The shortstop is 16-for-48 (.333) since April 8, and he’s coming off a 3-for-4 night against Toronto on Tuesday.
According to Baseball Savant, Pena ranks in the 88th percentile in xBA (.302). He’s also 2-for-4 against Francis, which doesn’t hurt.
One hit isn’t much of an ask for a heart-of-the-order bat in a groove.
Francis under 17.5 outs (+108): I intend to play this as a solo wager as well. I’m just not high on Francis at all.
Look at how poorly he ranks in a bunch of critical batted-ball metrics:
- 4th-percentile hard-hit rate
- 9th-percentile barrel rate
- 10th-percentile xERA
- 10th-percentile opponent xBA
- 16th-percentile chase rate
Francis has given up a lot of walks and hard contact but has been bailed out by Toronto’s defence.
That’s how you can explain the discrepancy between his 3.13 ERA and his 5.42 FIP.
Last April, in Francis’ first start against the Astros, they torched him for seven earned runs on 10 hits in 5.1 innings. I think they can chase him early from tonight’s matchup.
And keep in mind that Toronto has a rested bullpen that’s staring down an off-day on Thursday. None of its three highest-leverage relievers (Jeff Hoffman, Yimi Garcia, Chad Green) have pitched in the past three days.
Blue Jays vs. Astros predictions made at 1:20 p.m. ET on 04/23/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.